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SKIVT-L  January 2013, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2013, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 16 Jan 2013 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (194 lines)

Expires:201301162130;;925348
FPUS51 KBTV 160849
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

VTZ006-162130-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
349 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013
.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 20. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 20. TEMPERATURE
FALLING TO AROUND 4 ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND
14 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
26 BELOW. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 9 ABOVE. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
26 BELOW. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO ZERO. 
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS
AROUND 10 ABOVE. LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW. 
$$

Expires:201301161200;;932021
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    29  19  66 CALM      30.09F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    30  20  66 CALM      30.09F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    24  19  81 CALM      30.08F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  19  78 MISG      30.08F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    23  19  85 CALM      30.07F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  25  93 SE5       30.06F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  27  25  93 CALM      30.11F VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    27  20  75 E3        30.09F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    23  17  80 CALM      30.07F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  28  27  93 CALM      30.06R FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     19 N/A N/A NW1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A S12         N/A  WCI   3          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  23  69 SE9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  25  80 SE5         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;931611
FXUS61 KBTV 161128
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY
AND THEN PASS SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 433 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
MAKE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GFS IS THE FURTHEST
NORTH...WHILE THE NAM MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS
THE GFS MODEL. ALSO...BTV 4KM...BTV 6KM AND BTV 12KM MODELS ALSO
DO NOT BRING SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS MODEL DOES. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED IN THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS FOR TODAY.
THE GFS MOS POPS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE NAM MOS POPS. SUSPECT
THE GFS MOS POPS ARE OVERDONE FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS MOS
POPS HAVE A 37 PERCENT POP AT KMSS (MASSENA, NY)...YET THE GFS HAS
ZERO QPF AT KMSS TODAY...WHILE THE NAM MOS POP HAS A 5 PERCENT POP
FOR TODAY AT KMSS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THUS...THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF OF SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR TODAY...WHERE
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OR 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY SNOW TODAY. EXPECTING
SNOW TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA HEADS OUT TO SEA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ANY RESIDUAL SNOW FROM TODAY WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT OVER EASTERN VERMONT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TONIGHT. EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC FRONT TO BREAKOUT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODELS SHOWING HIGHER QPF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY PLACES
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... SO
HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL. FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND MAKE WAY FOR THE FIRST
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY.
PRETTY FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND OF COURSE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN
THE ACTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
HEADS FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREAK
WITH SOME DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THEN A
MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS TIME BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE DRY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S. AT THIS POINT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY IMPACTING RUT...AND
MAY ALSO MAKE IT INTO MPV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT
BTV...PBG AND SLK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT RUT AND MPV.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY...AND BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY AT BTV. BY 00Z ALL -SN WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY
FROM OUR TAF SITES. CEILINGS MAY HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE VFR AND
MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH 06Z...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
IN SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
FREEZE UP ICE JAMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE AUSABLE...SALMON...AND
MISSISQUOI RIVERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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