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SKIVT-L  February 2013, Week 3

SKIVT-L February 2013, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (186 lines)

Expires:201302212115;;489136
FPUS51 KBTV 211129
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013

VTZ006-212115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
629 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
.TODAY...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO
20 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100
PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A
DUSTING TO 1 INCH. LOWS AROUND 14. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 90
PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
$$

Expires:201302211200;;489110
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     NOT AVBL                                               
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     11   3  70 MISG      29.79R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A      7 N/A N/A W6          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
$$

Expires:No;;489431
FXUS61 KBTV 211133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST THURSDAY...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL
400 PM FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON...LAMOILLE...AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. SNOW
REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY INDICATE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE WARNING AREA AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE WEST-NORTHWEST LAST NIGHT
AND HIGH FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATING UNBLOCKED FLOW HELPED PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA...BUT THIS MORNING WE ARE
NOW SEEING LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AND WITH THE
FROUDE NUMBER DROPPING BELOW ONE...THE FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED
AND WE WILL SEE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS TO INDICATE
A GENERAL 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WARNING AREA...BUT 10 TO
20 INCHES ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW
WILL REMAIN ON THE FLUFFY SIDE...THUS LEADING TO THE HIGH SNOW
TOTALS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF SNOW DOWN ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE AREA TO HELP SHUT DOWN THE UPSLOPE SNOWS AND ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TRENDS
NOW SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE EAST GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL PHASE WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...SHOULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED
DISCUSSION WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST THURSDAY...FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TIME 
FRAME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONGER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW GOES.
LATEST ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE LOW PASSING OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK
SUNDAY MORNING. GFS HAS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD...AND THE
NAM BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS CAPE COD. NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF
STRONG COASTAL LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW WRAPAROUND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS LOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT BRINGS THE PRECIP TO OUR REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. EITHER WAY IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...AND LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING SOME PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN.
DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MPV...MSS AND SLK.
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR TO MVFR WITH BKN/OVC
CEILINGS BETWEEN 2.5-4.5 KFT. AROUND 08Z OR SO...EXPECT THAT SOME
OF THE STEADIER SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS TO BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN TOWARDS BTV AS FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BECOMES BLOCKED. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 7-10KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR/MVFR FOR THE TAFS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MPV AND SLK ON
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT HAVE ALSO SHOWN
VCSH AT MSS AND BTV. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 7-10KTS FOR
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AND THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU 06Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC RIDGE AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT HARD TO PINPOINT POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SNOW. MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ003-
     006-008-016>018.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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