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SKIVT-L  February 2013, Week 4

SKIVT-L February 2013, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (196 lines)

Expires:201302252115;;664185
FPUS51 KBTV 251123
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

VTZ006-252115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
623 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS AROUND 20. 
$$

Expires:201302251200;;664721
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      30.04R FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    28  27  93 NW5       30.03R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    32  27  81 N6        30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  28  85 MISG      29.98R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     31  27  83 NW7       29.99R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    28  28 100 CALM      30.02R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    31  25  78 N5        30.00R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  31  30  96 CALM      30.05R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    30  27  90 N7        30.01R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    28  24  85 S5        30.02R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A NW3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
DANBY 4 CNRS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
$$

Expires:No;;664661
FXUS61 KBTV 251142
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
MOST OF TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY
DAY...THOUGH CLOUDY DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SOME UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE
QUIET FOR THESE TWO PERIODS WITH GENERALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. A
LARGE SCALE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE STORM TRACKS FROM
THE TX/OK REGION THIS MORNING...NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OH/PA WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
REACH OUR CWA BY VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. SOME WARM AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH STILL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO
REACH ABOUT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
MODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR WRAPS INTO THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HOW
MUCH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH LIQUID. OF COURSE IT IS
STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR. THERE MAY
BE SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
GREENS BEFORE THE PRECIP SETS IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS IN THIS MOST
RECENT MODEL RUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY...EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY CONVOLUTED...THOUGH GENERALLY
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED NT/THU) WITH PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW AND BEST MOISTURE/UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THIS
MORNING'S DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE MEAN H850-H500
CENTERS TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH. THUS A LARGE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED. THAT SAID...WE ARE PULLING INTO LATE
WINTER AND WITH STRONGER INSOLATION THE NEAR SFC THERMAL PROFILES
WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY WARM SUCH THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED -RA/-SN
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY. AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE NORTHERLY FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD...THERMAL PROFILES DO COOL SOMEWHAT SUCH THAT PCPN
CHARACTER SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY SHSN IN ALL AREAS REGARDLESS OF
LOCATION OR TIME OF DAY. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO TREND
MORE SCATTERED AS UPPER LOW PULLS EAST AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE
THINS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEBULOUS AND
HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW AS DOWNSTREAM PATTERN ACROSS NERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINS STRONGLY BLOCKED. IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD A EUROPEAN MOS/GFS MOS BLEND WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE PER MODEL H925 THERMAL PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...COOLING SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR SLOW
COOLING TREND...BUT GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
LATE FEB/EARLY MARCH NORMS LEADING TO POSITIVE DAILY DEPARTURES
OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH BKN/OVC CONDS WILL BE THE RULE. IT
WILL BE MAINLY MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
SOME AREAS OF IFR CIGS AT KSLK/KMSS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. AS CIGS
CLIMB GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SOME SCT AREAS OF VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE 18-00Z.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GOING HERE AND THERE THROUGH 00/02Z.
WINDS TO TREND GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY BR
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN SNOW
AND/OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KRUT.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

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October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
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August 2010, Week 3
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
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January 2010, Week 4
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December 2009, Week 5
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 4
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August 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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