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SKIVT-L  March 2013, Week 3

SKIVT-L March 2013, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (178 lines)

Expires:201303212015;;690797
FPUS51 KBTV 210745
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

VTZ006-212015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
345 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 20. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
$$

Expires:201303211100;;697059
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    22  15  75 S8        29.71R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    18  11  74 S5        29.70S                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    18  10  71 CALM      29.69R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     14  10  84 MISG      29.67R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      15  11  83 SE3       29.66S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     21  14  73 SW8       29.72S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR      9   4  80 CALM      29.74S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      22  13  67 S5        29.69S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      17  12  78 S5        29.65S                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     12   8  84 CALM      29.74S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     12 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A SW39G51     N/A  WCI -14          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  19  64 SW14        N/A  WCI  20          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     27  19  74 S8          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;690807
FXUS61 KBTV 210745
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 
WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL 
GRADAULLY MODERATE TO NEAR EARLY SPRING NORMAL LEVELS FROM THIS 
WEEKEND ONWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE WEEK I'M
BEGINNING TO RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY AS BROKEN RECORD PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS SEMI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DUMBBELLS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE
WX CHANGE. THAT SAID...TODAY WON'T BE ALL THAT BAD DESPITE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE CHILLY SIDE. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MANY AREAS HAVING TRENDED
CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS...ESP ACROSS NRN
NY AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PIVOT BACK SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD IN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
I'VE THUS CARRIED BEST THREAT FOR ANY FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THESE AREAS WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS HERE AND THERE. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY DRY
IN VT WITH ANY SHSN/FLURRY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL BLENDED
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18Z SUPPORT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH CUSTOMARY WARM/COOL SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PIVOT BACK SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE BROADLY CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW. THUS EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA OVER TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS
NRN NY TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY. WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOWER
LEVELS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THOUGH REALISTICALLY I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A DUSTING ABOUT ANYWHERE. MODEL LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES BARELY CHANGE SUPPORTING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARD
TO LOWS/HIGHS. THUS VALUES BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25
RANGE TONIGHT...AND CLIMBING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
BY FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH VARIABLY 
CLOUDY SKIES...ON AND OFF FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS AND 
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 
TODAY/FRIDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO MILDER. I DID OFFER TO 
INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHSN BY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NRN 
GREENS AS WRAP-AROUND WARM THERMAL ADVECTION/MOISTURE BACKS 
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OCCLUDING MARITIME LOW PRESSURE...A FEATURE 
THAT HAS BEEN DEPICTED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY IN THE MODEL RUNS OVER 
THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
NORTHEAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD...STAGNANT UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
BLOCKING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP LOW IN PLACE...ALLOWING
FOR AMPLE OCEAN MOISTURE TO PINWHEEL DOWN UPON THE AREA ON
NORTHERLY FLOW. MDLS DO SHOW SOME SFC RIDGING STILL POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BUT OVERALL THE CWA WILL SEE AMPLE CLD COVER
THRU FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS FOR -SW ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ZONES/HIR ELEV. HAVE PUT IN CHANCE POPS NORTH...TAPERING
TO SL CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS EACH MOISTURE SURGE COMES IN
FROM QUEBEC. SMALL INCR TEMP TREND FOR THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE 30S TO
NEAR 40F AND OVERNGT LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS IN HIR ELEV TO
LOW/MID 20S FOR VALLEY LOCALES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RANGING
BKN-OVC035-070. SLK WILL SEE MVFR SKIES W/ BKN020-030 W/ LK BAND
CLDS BECM PERSISTENT AFT 10Z THIS MORNING. 3-6SM IN --SW FOR
MPV/SLK THRU PERIOD...OTHERWISE SCT FLURRIES W/ NO VSBY REDUCTION.
WINDS SSW 5-15KTS W/ SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 00Z FRIDAY...THEN
BECM LGT/VAR.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT
KSLK/KMPV AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS STORM SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/MUCCILLI

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