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SKIVT-L  April 2013, Week 3

SKIVT-L April 2013, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 06:50:08 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (160 lines)

Expires:201304181100;;967683
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    39  29  67 S3        30.34R                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    28  26  92 CALM      30.40R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    30  27  88 S5        30.38S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  25  81 MISG      30.36F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      31  21  66 W3        30.38R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    43  25  49 S8        30.35R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     28  26  92 CALM      30.39F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    40  21  46 SE6       30.33S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      31  25  76 SE5       30.36R                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    46  24  42 E7        30.29F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A SE17        N/A  WCI  18          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 NW1         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  32  81 SE3         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;964118
FXUS61 KBTV 180903
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
503 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NORTH
INTO CANADA TONIGHT. IT WILL BE WARM AND BECOMING WINDY TODAY AND FRIDAY
     AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
COULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH FOR TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THEM
QUITE A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...
AS THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN CANADA.
THUS...HAVE GREATLY LOWERED MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE THIRD PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS REVIEW LATER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION
ON A WIND ADVISORY. HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. EXPECTING FRIDAY TO START OUT
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FOR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HAVE HELD OFF ON BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO
AN END BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WK...THEN UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
AS PATTERN BECMG MORE ACTIVE. SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN MAINLY
CLR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN DEEP DRY
AIRMASS ACRS THE NE CONUS...EXPECT LARGE SWINGS IN DIURNAL TEMPS
FROM LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. TEMPS
WL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLW NORMAL. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TWD THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE AND GEM FOR TUESDAY...WITH TRACK WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLW AROUND
HIGH PRES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS. ALSO...THIS WL
CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCSTER THINKING. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS. ONCE AGAIN SFC LOW PRES
WL TRACK TO OUR WEST...PLACING OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY WEDS
ALONG CHCS FOR PRECIP WED AFTN INTO THURS. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL
TUES AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDS INTO THURS. 
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THRU THIS AFTN WL BE
PLACEMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
WINDS. CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A SFC WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS WESTERN NY ATTM. THIS
FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WL LIFT ACRS
NORTHERN NY TAF SITES BTWN 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING. BASED OFF THE
RAP 13 HAVE TEMPO A PERIOD OF -SHRA FOR MSS/SLK EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY AND LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC GRADIENT WL INCREASE WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ANTICIPATED. SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL BTWN 25 AND
30 KNTS THIS AFTN...AS SFC HEATING OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU TODAY. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SOME LLVL RH/CLOUDS
INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS...WL
CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS. 
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL CONT ON FRIDAY AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SAT THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 451 AM EDT THURSDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. RUNOFF FROM THIS SNOW MELT WILL
LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 5
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February 2002, Week 1
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