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SKIVT-L  May 2013, Week 2

SKIVT-L May 2013, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 10 May 2013 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (188 lines)

Expires:201305102015;;968863
FPUS51 KBTV 101045
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

VTZ006-102015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013
.TODAY...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 60. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. 
$$

Expires:201305101100;;968487
ASUS41 KBTV 101030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-101100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    57  54  89 CALM      29.94R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       52  52 100 CALM      29.98R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    PTSUNNY   53  51  93 CALM      29.95R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  54  93 MISG      29.91R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    55  52  89 CALM      29.95S FOG              
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY   48  48 100 SE5       29.96R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       49  49 100 CALM      29.95R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    60  55  82 N5        29.94R                  
NEWPORT*       PTSUNNY   54  51  91 CALM      29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       45  44  97 CALM      29.96R VSB 1/4          
SUTTON*          N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A W20         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  54  88 W5          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 SW5         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  55  94 S3          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;964494
FXUS61 KBTV 100842
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND A SECONDARY WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL
TO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH
COOLER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WILL TREND
COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SOME SLIGHT RIDGING THIS MORNING ALLOW FOR A DRY
START TO THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN AS
ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDE IN FROM THE NW.
DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE VALUES
OF 100-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE MAINLY OVER THE NRN ADKS. LIFTED
INDICES NEAR 0 THIS AFTN OVER THE HIGH TRRN...HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE L-M70S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S IN THE HIGH TRRN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL ACROSS OUR AREA AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES MOVE ENE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...KEEPING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
SATURDAY...AS MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QPF
TOTALS DURING THE TWO- DAY PERIOD EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES.
AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...CLOUDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
FILTER IN SATURDAY NT INTO SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR FRIDAY WILL COOL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...RESULTING IN
MAX TEMPS IN THE U60S-L70S ON SATURDAY COOLING TO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT FRIDAY...A LARGELY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
OFFERED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IT BEGINS
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID-MAY STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN FACT WITH SUMMIT-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF RAIN MIXES
WITH SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC FORCING
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION BY
MIDWEEK...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON HOW IT
EVOLVES. THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES (850 TEMPERATURES +15-20C) LOCATED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE TROUGHING THAN THE
ECMWF DOES AND THE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
GIVEN ITS PRIOR HISTORY AND THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH CHANCE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD KEEPING SHOWERS
GOING IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE CHALLENGE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE IN MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT. NOTICED THAT MVP
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP OFF WITH IFR VISIBILITIES UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...AND ALSO SUSPECT THAT MASS AND SLK WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS
OF MIST/FOG TONIGHT AS THESE TWO TAF SITES SAW SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE ISSUE WITH THESE LATTER TWO TAF SITES ABOUT
MIST/FOG IS THAT SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A FRONT WITH
NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS BELIEVE ANY MIST/FOG THAT DEVELOPS AT SLK AND
MASS MAY BE BRIEF/END SOONER THAN AT MVP. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THESE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 17Z FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. POTENTIAL MVFR OR PERHAPS BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH UNDER 10KTS...EXCEPT
AT MASS WHERE WINDS MAY STAY NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF RAIN/HEAVIER
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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