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SKIVT-L  May 2013, Week 5

SKIVT-L May 2013, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 30 May 2013 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (191 lines)

Expires:201305302015;;886426
FPUS51 KBTV 300800
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

VTZ006-302015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
400 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
$$

Expires:201305301100;;892761
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   63  61  93 S6        30.03R                  
MONTPELIER     MOSUNNY   57  57 100 CALM      30.09R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    PTSUNNY   59  57  93 CALM      30.04R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  59  96 MISG      30.01R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       59  56  91 CALM      30.06R VSB<1/4          
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     63  61  94 S3        30.07R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       59  58  96 CALM      30.06R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      62  58  88 CALM      30.02R FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    60  58  91 CALM      30.04R FOG              
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   57  55  94 CALM      30.09R FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A W33         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  61 100 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  55 100 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  63 100 W6          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;886461
FXUS61 KBTV 300800
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
FRIDAY WITH WARM...HUMID...AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A SLOW 
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH AMBIENT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
LIFT VERY WEAK AND A MODEST CAP EVIDENT OFF THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDINGS AROUND 750 MB...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LOW. WHILE I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STRAY
STORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS DUE TO ENHANCED THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...THE EXPECTED PAUCITY OF COVERAGE WARRANTS KEEPING
SENSIBLE FORECAST DRY TODAY. IT WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND
MORE HUMID HOWEVER AS SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS MAKES FURTHER INROADS
INTO OUR AREA UNDER BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS AND LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MEAN 925 MB THERMAL PROGS
CONCUR...SUPPORTING HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 78 TO 82 IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 81 TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS WITH MODESTLY HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE 58 TO 66 RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ON TAP
FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES HOLD ON MILD SIDE UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING 57 TO 67 WITH PATCHY
BR/FG IN FAVORED AREAS OF EASTERN VT/ADIRONDACKS.
BY FRIDAY...GENERALLY A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS DEEP LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PEAKS ACROSS THE REGION. BLENDED 18-00Z 925 MB 
THERMAL PROGS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND LEANED CLOSE TO A BLENDED 
MOS IDEA IN REGARD TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...OFFERING VALUES IN THE 
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. A TAD MORE INSTABILITY AND 
LESS OF A MID-LEVEL CAP THAN TODAY...SO AN ISOLATED LATE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM A TAD MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN TODAY. 
NONETHELESS COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER SCANT WITH NO 
LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR LIFT PRESENT. ANY EVENING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN END OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO 
PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY AROUND 70.
ON SATURDAY...DEEP RIDGING BEGINS TO SHOW FIRST SIGNS OF BREAKING 
DOWN AS AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PUSHES EASTWARD. LOOKING AT ALL OF 
THE NON-QPF/PCPN FIELDS FROM THIS MORNING'S MODELS WOULDN'T GET A 
FORECASTER OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT A 
CLOSER LOOK DOES SHOW INCREMENTAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ALONG WITH 
AMBIENT PBL INSTABILITY AND SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR. WITH 
THIS IN MIND AND OWING TO THE FACT THAT MOST RELIABLE SOLUTIONS SHOW 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...WILL 
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY SHOWING 30-50% POPS FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR 
STORM HERE OR THERE...BEST THREAT NORTH AND WEST. HIGHS AGAIN QUITE 
WARM (80S) AND HUMID GIVEN WE'LL STILL BE IN MOIST SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST GFS/ECMWF IN FAIRLY GD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD W/ FRNTL BOUNDARY WEST OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NGT...PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
FINALLY ARRIVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THE MORNING HRS OF MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY MONDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY...SLOWED BY EXITING UPPER
LOW ASSOCIATED W/ CD FRNT. LOOKING FOR ROUND OF RW/TRW WITH FROPA
SUN/SUN NGT...TAPERING TO -RW MONDAY. HAVE INCR POPS FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME ACCOUNTING FOR SLOW MVMNT AND MDL TREND KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES OVER AREA. TRAINING OF QPF IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING FROPA W/ A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUN NGT AS SFC LOW MVS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
FOR MONDAY...EXPECTING LINGER -RW OVER NORTHERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW EFFECTS. WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRNT. CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PREFRONTAL -RW COULD KEEP
TEMPS DOWN SOME AT ONSET...BUT 70S STILL LOOKS GD FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...TAPERING TO THE U60S/L70S FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
OVERNGT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND COOLER AS DAYS PROGRESS DUE TO CLRING
SKIES WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA. BEST WX FOR EXTENDED WILL
OCCUR TUES NGT INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THRU 12Z THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM
VFR UNDER SKC DOWN TO IFR/VLIFR DUE TO FG FORMATION. MAIN AREAS
AFFECTED WILL BE MPV/SLK/MSS WHERE VSBY WILL DROP TO 3SM OR LESS
AT TIMES..OTHERWISE 4-6SM. AFT 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SKC-SCT050.
AFT 00Z FRI...VFR WITH SOME MVFR FG DOWN TO 4SM AT SLK/MPV. WINDS
MAINLY LGT/VAR(SSW 5KTS FOR BTV) THRU 12Z THEN SSW TO W
5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z FRI.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/WGH

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2011, Week 3
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April 2011, Week 1
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March 2011, Week 4
March 2011, Week 3
March 2011, Week 2
March 2011, Week 1
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January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
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November 2010, Week 3
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November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
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October 2010, Week 3
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October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
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September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
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January 2010, Week 3
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December 2009, Week 5
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November 2009, Week 1
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 3
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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