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SKIVT-L  June 2013, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2013, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 29 Jun 2013 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (223 lines)

Expires:201306292000;;283462
FPUS51 KBTV 290745
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

VTZ006-292000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
$$

Expires:201306291100;;289960
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   64  59  83 CALM      29.53R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    63  63 100 CALM      29.59R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      29.56R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  64  97 MISG      29.52R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    65  62  89 CALM      29.57R                  
RUTLAND*       PTSUNNY   64  63  94 SE3       29.55R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    66  66 100 CALM      29.55S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      61  57  87 CALM      29.54R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    61  58  91 CALM      29.56R                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       65  63  93 CALM      29.55R VSB<1/4          
SUTTON*          N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A SW8         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  59  94 NW9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  59  88 N7          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;286251
FXUS61 KBTV 290851
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTS 
ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR AND PW ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF S/W ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROF BASE AND MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH SOME SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...BTV 2 AND 4KM
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH PROGGED TOO HIGH BL DWPTS...WHICH
RESULTS IN GREATER CAPE PROFILES...AND MUCH GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN. GIVEN SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1200 AND 1800 J/KG...LIS AROUND -4C...AND S/W ENERGY
ALOFT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
BEST INSTABILITY AXIS WL BE ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...ALONG WITH
PW VALUES BTWN 1.00 AND 1.25". IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS IS LOCATED ACRS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THIS
AFTN...BUT THINKING BEST COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL WL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL/HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SOUNDING PROFILES
AND VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING SW TO NE...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING. GIVEN SATURATED
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR
ISSUES...THEREFORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WL 
DECREASE AS SFC INSTABILITY DISSIPATES. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 
THE EVENING HRS...THEN PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DEEPER 
VALLEYS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M50S MTN VALLEYS TO L/M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL...MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS BECMG SHARPER...WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLW AT MID LVLS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY. THIS WL SHIFT OUR
MID LVL FLW FROM SW TO SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR CWA BY MONDAY AFTN. PWS INCREASE TO NEAR 2.0"...ALONG
WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...A RRQ OF 25H JET OF 100 TO 120 KNOTS WL BE ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR REGION IN FAVORABLE ULVL
DIVERGENCE...FOR ENHANCED DEEP LAYER LIFT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY EACH AFTN...PER CLOUD
COVER AND BL DWPTS. ON SUNDAY...THINKING GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT...WHERE
INSTABILITY/PWS ARE THE HIGHEST...ALONG WITH THE BEST LLVL SFC
CONVERGENCE FROM BOUNDARY. BY MONDAY...THIS FORCING ALONG WITH
INCREASED PW VALUES AND INSTABILITY WL LIFT INTO CENTRAL VT AND
PARTS OF NNY. WL MENTION CHC POPS FOR AFTN ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND
LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY...PER BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE PROFILES. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WL INCREASE BY MONDAY AFTN. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD ISSUES...BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS AREAS OF COMPLEX TRRN...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS 85H TEMP CLIMB BACK BTWN 13-15C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL BE INBETWEEN A DEEP 
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEP AND MOIST 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE 
PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS 
REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE... 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO 
HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME 
OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SERIES OF HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES 
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AT TIMES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY 
HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED 
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS...
GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS MONTH AND
THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY
LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND ZONAL...WHICH WOULD HELP DRY
THINGS OUT JUST A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID
AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SLK/MPV/RUT WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
ANTICIPATED AFTER 14Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN S-SW 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
 
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR ALTHOUGH
BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ANY PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WL INCREASE AGAIN
BY EARLY THIS UPCOMING WK...ESPECIALLY AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASES. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION... SFC INSTABILITY...AND SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2011, Week 5
March 2011, Week 4
March 2011, Week 3
March 2011, Week 2
March 2011, Week 1
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February 2011, Week 3
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February 2011, Week 1
January 2011, Week 5
January 2011, Week 4
January 2011, Week 3
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January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
December 2010, Week 3
December 2010, Week 2
December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
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February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
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December 2009, Week 5
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October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 3
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
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May 2006, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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