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SKIVT-L  September 2013, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2013, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 24 Sep 2013 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (194 lines)

Expires:201309242015;;313983
FPUS51 KBTV 240745
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

VTZ006-242015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.TODAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
$$

Expires:201309241100;;320269
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    49  38  65 NW9       30.03S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    44  37  76 NW8       30.02S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    46  37  71 N5        30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     46  37  71 MISG      29.97S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    44  34  70 NW7G17    29.98F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    46  41  81 W5        30.02S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    45  37  76 NW8       30.01S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    47  38  71 VRB3      29.99F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    49  39  68 NW3       30.03S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    43  35  72 NW6       29.99F                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     34  32  92 CALM      30.03S                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A NW7         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  43  76 NW6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  39  66 N23         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  37  66 NW13        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;314202
FXUS61 KBTV 240759
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL 
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY 
ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. BY 
FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE 
NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY A CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY'S WEATHER AS EXPANDING UPPER CYCLONIC
GYRE SLOWLY PIVOTS ACROSS FAR NRN MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. DEEP NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TODAY AND ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VT AND
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST INTO OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST...CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC AND WITH BROAD MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE 925-850 MB RH FIELDS WILL KEEP THESE AREAS MAINLY
CLOUDY TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS DEEPER RH AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VV MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. GIVEN WE RAN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA BY
LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MACHINE NUMBERS...GENERALLY
OFFERING VALUES FROM THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S IN THE SLV AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VT...AND 50S ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER
40S POSSIBLE IN THE NC/NERN VT MOUNTAINS. WINDS PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FROM 7 TO 12 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY...ESP ACROSS
VT WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...WELL...IT'S BEEN SAID MANY TIMES THAT IF
YOU'RE IN THIS BUSINESS YOU MUST KEEP A HUMBLE ATTITUDE AS MOTHER
NATURE CAN ALWAYS THROW A WRENCH AT YOUR WELL PLANNED-OUT
FORECAST. INDEED...I'VE BEEN CARRYING THE IDEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THAT DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO OUR REGION WITH CLEARING/SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD. WHAT I DIDN'T COUNT ON IS THE
BUILDING WARMTH AND INVERSION ALOFT LIKELY TRAPPING A SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER PIVOTING BACK SOUTHWEST INTO OUR REGION FROM DISTANT
MARITIME UPPER LOW. WHILE INDIVIDUAL MODEL MID LEVEL RH FIELDS CAN
SOMETIMES OVERDUE EXTENT OF SATURATION...CONSENSUS IS VERY STRONG
AMONG NEARLY ALL 00Z SOLUTIONS IN THE 925-850 MB RH FIELDS SHOWING
AMPLE CLOUD COVER BACKING SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING...IF YOU BELIEVE IT LITERALLY...ALL THE WAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I'VE OFFERED CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE SLV AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
SC VT WHERE SOME MODEST DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL OCCUR. ALSO
REMEMBER HOW I SPOKE OF "WIDER THAN NORMAL" TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR
WED/THU AS RECENT AS LAST NIGHT? GIVEN THE ABOUT SWITCH IN CLOUD
FORECAST...MAX/MINS WILL ACTUALLY TREND TOWARD NARROWER THAN
NORMAL RANGES...ESP NORTH/NRN MTNS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SO WE'LL STILL SEE SOME GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. HIGHS
COOLEST NC/NE VT IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60 BY
THURSDAY...MILDEST WEST/SLV WHERE SOLID 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F BY
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION...CRESTING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM WRN GREAT LAKES...BUT
ECMWF SHOWS TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING NORTH INTO THE OBX EARLY
SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BEND BACK...SHIFTING E INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE AND PRECIP FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SRN PORTIONS OF CWA LATE SUNDAY...WHILE GFS KEEPS THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES LOW SLOWLY ERODING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DUE TO THESE
DISCREPANCIES...CONFIDENCE LOW FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL ALSO SHOWS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...SO THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO MOVE IN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S-L70S DURING
THE DAY AND 40S-L50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH AND EAST...AS CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTS. EXPECT CLRING AT KMSS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AREAS
S AND W IN THE SLV LOOK TO STAY CLOUD FREE. MVFR LOW CLDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT KMPV...WITH SOME BREAKS TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. KSLK CIGS CURRENTLY 022 AND CONTINUE TO LOWER. EXPECT
CIGS AT KSLK TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTED
VFR AS WIND FLOW GENERALLY STRONGER...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
INTO MID MORNING HRS.
AREA OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL RETREAT EWD DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SLV AND PSBLY THE
ADKS...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE CPV...WITH MOST OF VT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC. ALL CIGS DURING THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING OUT OF THE NW AT
6-12KTS GUSTING 15-20KTS. INTO THE EVENING HRS/OVERNT WIND FLOW
WILL SHIFT MORE N TO NE WITH SPEEDS OF 10KTS OR LESS. THE LLVL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SURGE BACK EAST WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
REGION THRU FRIDAY...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND
KSLK. FRIDAY NGT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT PSBL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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