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SKIVT-L  December 2013, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2013, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 8 Dec 2013 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (198 lines)

Expires:201312082115;;739523
FPUS51 KBTV 081136
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

VTZ006-082115-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
636 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOW
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS
AROUND 15. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
19. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO.
HIGHS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 15. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. 
$$

Expires:201312081200;;739542
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 08 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    22   8  55 N3        30.54R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    18   6  59 CALM      30.50R                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY     20   4  50 NW6       30.51R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     16   9  74 MISG      30.48R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      16   3  55 CALM      30.48R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    24  11  58 W5        30.52R                  
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY   21  10  63 NW5       30.50R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    23  15  71 CALM      30.50R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    23   9  55 CALM      30.54R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      17   6  63 CALM      30.49R                  
BENNINGTON     MOSUNNY   23  16  74 CALM      30.49R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      5 N/A N/A NW20        N/A  WCI -15          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     27  10  50 W7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     27  12  54 NW6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     27  12  54 NW12        N/A  WCI  16          
$$

Expires:No;;739890
FXUS61 KBTV 081146
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SUNDAY WILL SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT...BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TURNING
COLDER AND DRIER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
LAKE EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EST SUNDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS HAVE
LOWERED A LITTLE BIT THIS MORNING...STILL GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NW-N. MOST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SEE OVC SKIES...ONLY
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE NEK...INCOMING MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ON
OUR DOORSTEP SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
TODAY. SOME LGT SNOW/FLURRIES PSBL IN THE ADKS...CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED AT SLK WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO END
WITH MORE W TO NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...INCREASING HIGH AND MID LVL CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS. GENERALLY LGT FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NW. 925MB
TEMPS AROUND -10C WILL RESULT IN SFC MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS
THROUGH L30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
LOWER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...FLOW WILL TURN S-SE. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING
FOR A MESSY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM A DUSTING NORTH TO AROUND 2 INCHES SOUTH. SOUTHEASTERN
SLOPES MAY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SE FLOW.
SNOW EARLY MONDAY WILL SEE WARMING TEMPS INTRUDE FROM THE
SOUTH...LEADING TO SOME MIXED PRECIP DURING THE DAY/AFTN.
GFS/SREF HAVE TRENDED WARMER...BRINGING WARM NOSE OF 1C TO 2C
INTO SOUTHERN VT...REACHING RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. 00Z NAM
KEPT THINGS COLD...BUT 06Z RUN NOW SHOWS WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SFC WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND
PSBLY FREEZING RAIN FOR SRN VT. ANOTHER COMPLICATION FOR PTYPE
WILL BE VARYING DEGREE OF SATURATION ACHIEVED BETWEEN -20C AND
-10C ALOFT. VIA BUFKIT...GFS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING AT COLDER
TEMPS THAN NAM. SATURATION AT COLDER TEMPS WOULD COMMONLY TAKE A
WARM NOSE OF ABOUT 2C-3C FOR FZRA TO DEVELOP. SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SLEET WILL DEVELOP...BUT ONLY WENT CHC FOR FZRA AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING ONLY TRACE OF ICE ACCRETION. WITH WARMER 06Z NAM
RUN...MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE/WAIT FOR 12Z RUNS. OTHER
AREAS...SLV AND CPV WILL SEE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WILL MOST
OF CENTRAL VT. EXPECT SNOW TO PERSIST IN HIGH ELEVATIONS AND NERN
HALF OF NEK.
AS PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE
EVENING...EXPECTING TO BE MOSTLY DRY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.
HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SERN SLOPES.
ALSO...LLVL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AT 850MB.
THIS JET OF 40-50KTS WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15-30 KTS AND HIGHER
IN THE HIGH TRRN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NGT
INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN NY. REST OF FA WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPS MONDAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NGT AND MONDAY NGT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGH TRRN AND L20S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
ALSO GIVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RUN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN DECEMBER.
ON SATURDAY...ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON 18Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE
GFS MODEL HAS AN 1008 MB LOW AROUND GEORGIAN BAY ON 18Z SATURDAY.
NCEP WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MANUAL PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF MODEL AND
HAVE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
ALSO...ECMWF MODEL TENDS TO DO A BETTER JOB THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
THE LONGER TIME RANGE OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MAINE
BY 06Z MONDAY. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
CEILINGS MAINLY 4000-6000 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING LIGHT
SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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