Expires:201405142000;;970124
FPUS51 KBTV 141021
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

VTZ006-142000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
620 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S.
$$

Expires:201405141100;;970425
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTSUNNY 60 42 51 S13G23 30.13R
MONTPELIER MOSUNNY 47 38 71 S8 30.22F
MORRISVILLE PTSUNNY 51 40 65 S7 30.17S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 50 37 61 MISG 30.20F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 49 35 57 MISG 30.22S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 55 45 67 E7 30.19R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 52 43 71 SE8 30.23R
SPRINGFIELD MOSUNNY 48 39 71 SE5 30.25F
HIGHGATE* FAIR 62 42 48 S10G18 30.09R
NEWPORT* FAIR 50 37 59 S8 30.17S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 52 44 74 N7 30.17F
SUTTON* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 55 N/A N/A W10 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 45 67 S20 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 43 71 S31 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 55 45 67 S18 N/A
$$

Expires:No;;970204
FXUS61 KBTV 141026
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. COOLER...OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ATOP THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATE TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT
EVOLUTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. AS
EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT NEW YORK CONVECTION MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED
AS IT RAN INTO UPPER RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. STILL SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES...AND
EVIDENCE OF SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KART. THIS SECOND AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS AREA TODAY WITH AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST MAINLY
DRY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY STILL TRACKING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS ADVANCING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AS OF THE 4 AM HOUR. AS THIS
ACTIVITY RUNS INTO THE UPPER H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...IT
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE IF NOT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND NORTH AND EAST INTO OUR
SLV/WESTERN ADIRONDACK COUNTIES BENEATH MAIN 1000-850 THETA-E AXIS
AND AREA OF PBL INSTABILITY. WITH MEAN MID- LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
SOUTHWEST THEY WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING TOO FAR EAST INTO VT...SO
MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY. NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH MID-LVL
FLOW TO PERHAPS SPARK AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL OR TWO WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z 925 MB
TEMPS ARE AVERAGING 16-18C...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 8-10C FOR SFC
TEMPS DURING THE WARM SEASON YIELDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 80 CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL SUN. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
AS DOWNSTREAM WESTERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING PERSISTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS STILL A GOOD BET INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WANE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER THE SQUEEZE ZONE SO TO
SPEAK BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE ...AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD...HOLDING IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60
CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW. CLOUDS
VARIABLE...THOUGH INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT MORE PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NEW YORK BIGHT INTO THE
COASTAL DELMARVA WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN/ERN
VT COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT.
BY THURSDAY...MUCH THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY
AS BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER SUPPORT BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. AGAIN...BEST SHOT OF ANY THUNDER ALSO WEST
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES. ALSO CONTINUED EVIDENCE THAT PESKY
MARINE-MODIFIED STRATUS MAY PERSIST ACROSS OUR ERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES/MIST MAY DEVELOP OVER
TIME. HIGHS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY (70S TO LOCALLY NEAR 80) THOUGH
PERHAPS A TAD COOLER SOUTH AND EAST IF AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD FORECAST
VERIFIES.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SURFACE COLD FRONT TRUDGES EVER SO
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BEST COVERAGE NRN NY THU NT...THEN ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE RAIN COULD FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH ORIGINS IN THE
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. INDEED PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TO NEAR 200%
OF MID-MAY NORMALS FOR ABOUT A 12-HR PERIOD IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE THE IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. LOWS REMAINING QUITE MILD THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESP DACKS EASTWARD (55 TO 65) WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY SOMEWHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUDS/PCPN (65 TO 75).
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIR CONSISTENCY IN LATEST MODEL RUNS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SLOW MVG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TREK THRU THE NORTHEAST
REGION...BLOCKED BY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE. FRONT DOES MAKE IT
TO THE EAST COAST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...REMAINING THERE AS
UPPER TROUGH BEHIND SYSTEM SWINGS DOWN THRU THE GREAT LKS
REGION...CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHEAST RIGHT INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR
TAPERING OFF AND MVG OFFSHORE. QPF NUMBERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.60". FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LIGHT -RW
WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE AREA. WK SFC
RIDGING ON THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
GIVE REGION BREAK IN PRECIP...BUT CLDS WILL PERSIST. WITH
PERSISTENT CLDS/PRECIP EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD...LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECASTED HIGHS/LOWS. MDLS NUMBERS WILL RANGE IN THE
60S FOR HIGHS(WITH SPOT 50S IN HIR TRRN). OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S FRI NGT BEFORE FRONT PUSHES THRU
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND THRU 10Z AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES THRU REGION. 3-6SM IN -RW W/ CEILINGS BKN-OVC035-100.
SLK CHANCE FOR -TRW THRU 0630Z. AFT 10Z...VFR COND FOR ALL SITES
WITH SCT-BKN CEILINGS. BKN LOWER VFR CEILINGS OCCUR LATE IN
PERIOD. VCSH/-SHRA POSSIBLE AFT 10Z W/ NO VSBY REDUCTION. WINDS
BECM SOUTHERLY 10-20KTS...TAPERING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 00Z
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR FOR MSS THRU 09Z UP TO 40KTS FROM SW.
OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU THRU 12Z FRI...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS FROM KPBG
EASTWARD. WEST OF KPBG...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AVERAGING GENERALLY IN THE
10-20/15-25 KNOT RANGE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS OF
COLDER WATER THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ON THE BROAD LAKE AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/MUCCILLI
MARINE...JMG

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