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SKIVT-L  July 2014, Week 3

SKIVT-L July 2014, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 16 Jul 2014 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (177 lines)

Expires:201407162000;;917937
FPUS51 KBTV 160706
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
305 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
$$

Expires:201407161100;;925714
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    68  62  81 N5        29.77R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    61  60  97 S3        29.84R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  62  61  96 CALM      29.80R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     62  61  96 MISG      29.78R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     63  58  86 NE6       29.83                   
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    63  63 100 CALM      29.79R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  68  67  96 CALM      29.77S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    65  63  94 CALM      29.77R                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE  N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.81R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  65  62  90 VRB3      29.79R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     68 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A NW22        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  59  68 SW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  57  64 NW6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  63  78 W1          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;918909
FXUS61 KBTV 160731
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF VERMONT ALLOWING RAIN TO COME TO AN 
END EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEN MODERATING BACK INTO THE 80S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 308 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL RAINBAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT 
EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO 0.1-0.2" ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT
THRU ABOUT 14Z...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING SW-W AT 5-10 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA
WILL ADVECT IN DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR
50S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 308 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH WEAK SFC-850MB CAA
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GENERALLY TRANQUIL WX THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ONLY PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN...IN THE FORM OF ISOLD SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AS 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THRU THE REGION COINCIDENT
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL CARRY 20
POPS FOR THIS...AND OTHERWISE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THRU FRIDAY.
GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WIND REGIME...ANTICIPATE NOCTURNAL
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY 06-12Z.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS. LOOKING AT A SLOW
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY AND
AROUND 80F FOR FRIDAY IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
PLEASANTLY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A VERY NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WARMING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE 1024MB SFC HIGH PRES
NEAR KGFL NEW YORK ON SAT...SLOWLY SHIFTING TWD PORTLAND MAINE BY
SUNDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL BE CENTERED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS TRYING TO UNCUT
RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WL HAVE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVEN
DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...THEREFORE HAVE CUT POPS AND KEPT FCST
DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 10-13C...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S MTNS TO U50S SLV/CPV. EXPECT A LARGE DIRUNAL SWING IN
TEMPS GIVEN DRY AIRMASS. BY TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT
WEEK...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER
SFC DWPTS INTO OUR FA. THIS WL INCREASE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...ALONG WITH GREATER AFTN INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ULVL
FORCING IS WEAK THRU THE PERIOD AND BEST 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS
ARE PROGGED TO STAY ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SNE THRU TUES...SO
WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY. MY THE MID TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC COLD FRNT...SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/W TROF...AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS...WL INTERACT WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90F...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE BTWN 15
AND 16C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CRNT OBS SHOW VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHING THE
CPV. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED DOWN POURS TO
IMPACT THE CPV AND POINTS EAST THRU 10Z THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWN POURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF IFR
VIS...ESPECIALLY AT MPV. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY IMPACT
RUTLAND AFT 08Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST WL OCCUR THIS
MORNING...AND BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A SLOW CLRING TREND IN THE CIGS WL
OCCUR AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO OUR TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY CLR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY 00Z THURS. 
OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TROF OF LOW PRES ALOFT WL CONT ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE HIGH
PRES AT THE SFC PREVAILS ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF MORNING FOG/BR BTWN 08Z-12Z ON THURS
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WL
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SAT/SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WL OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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