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SKIVT-L  August 2014, Week 2

SKIVT-L August 2014, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 11 Aug 2014 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (190 lines)

Expires:201408112000;;112662
FPUS51 KBTV 110808
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

VTZ006-112000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
407 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
60. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
$$

Expires:201408111100;;118481
ASUS41 KBTV 111030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-111100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     59  56  89 E3        30.13S                  
MONTPELIER     MOSUNNY   53  53 100 CALM      30.21R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.18S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  55 100 MISG      30.16R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      56  56 100 CALM      30.14S                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     55  54  94 SE7       30.16S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       55  55 100 CALM      30.18R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      58  56  94 SE5       30.13R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      53  53  99 SW3       30.17S FOG              
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     55  53  93 CALM      30.15F                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A NW9         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  63  88 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  61  88 S6          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;115766
FXUS61 KBTV 110904
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
504 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...SQUEEZING OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY OF
WEATHER AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC
RIDGE...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. AT 500MB...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE NEK...AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
SOUTH FROM ERN QUEBEC. DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO LAST LONG.
OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE L-M80S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M60S-L70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 504 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THEREFORE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO ON THE INCREASE WILL
BE CLOUDS...GRADUALLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COME TUE MORNING...TROUGH
WILL BE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AS THE SFC CLOSED LOW SITS OVER LAKE
HURON...GRADUALLY MOVING NW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...SHIFTING MORE SEWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CAPE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING...BUT WITH 925MB JET OF 40-50KTS LATE IN THE DAY...HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
1.5 INCHES BY MIDDAY IN THE SLV...SLOWLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING THE CPV BY EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP TO PROGRESS AS
FOLLOWS...SLV BY MID MORNING...ADKS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...CPV
TOWARDS THE EVENING COMMUTE AND ERN VT GENERALLY AFTER SUNSET.AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE SE LATER IN THE DAY INTO EVENING...ERN SLOPES
WILL SEE MORE ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SHADOWING PSBL IN
THE WRN SLOPES AND CPV.
PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE RAIN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PSBL...WITH LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW HAS NOT
TRAVELED FAR...REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL QUEBEC. RAIN WILL PERSIST
INTO THE LONG TERM.
STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST
UNDER AN INCH TO OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ADKS. THE
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL WILL KEEP MAIN STEM RIVERS FROM
FLOODING...BUT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD
TO MINOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESP IN
THE AFTNS WHEN MODELS SHOW BEST DEFORMATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...TREND IN THE DATA SUGGESTS UPPER LOW THAT
CUTS OFF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WANTS TO BECOME MORE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE AS OPPOSED TO RIGHT OVER OUR AREA.
THIS SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS THINKING THAT A MORE NOTICEABLE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW AND LESSER PROBABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SO NOW
THE FORECAST SHOULD LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THE SHOWERS UP NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EVENTUALLY UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO THAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
COLDEST 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO LIKE THE IDEA OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA DEPICTED WELL.
WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KSLK...KMSS...AND KMPV THROUGH ABOUT 13Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THESE SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KSLK AND KMPV BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS.
18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN OCNL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD SCT SHOWERS STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT
INCREASING STRETCHES OF VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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