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SKIVT-L  September 2014, Week 2

SKIVT-L September 2014, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 8 Sep 2014 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (175 lines)

Expires:201409082000;;388192
FPUS51 KBTV 080727
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

VTZ006-082000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
326 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014
.TODAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG. LOWS AROUND 50.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
$$

Expires:201409081100;;395363
ASUS41 KBTV 081030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-081100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     51  49  92 CALM      30.31R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    46  46 100 CALM      30.38R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    FOG       46  45  96 CALM      30.35R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  47  96 MISG      30.33R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      48  48 100 CALM      30.32R FOG              
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     50  46  87 SE6       30.33R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       47  47 100 CALM      30.35R VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      48  47  97 SE5       30.31R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      44  44  99 CALM      30.35R FOG              
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     47  45  93 CALM      30.31R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A N3          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  54  82 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  55  88 S2          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  54  94 SE6         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;388677
FXUS61 KBTV 080746
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER 
AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT 
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...THE QUIET AND OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF
WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG (1030 MB) SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES. THUS OUTSIDE PATCHY EARLY MORNING FG IN FAVORED
LOCALES...CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS.
YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHY...IN THIS FORECASTER'S
OPINION...SEPTEMBER IS THE BEST MONTH WEATHERWISE IN THE ENTIRE
YEAR ON AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...GREAT WEATHER THEN CONTINUES INTO
TUE/WED TIME FRAME AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
EDGE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE-AXIS REMAINS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...SO WINDS SHOULD IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS OUR ERN/SRN COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY MARITIME FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT OUTSIDE AVIATION INTERESTS THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE FORECAST AND BY IN
LARGE SHOULD MIX OUT BY WEDNESDAY. BIAS-CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PERFORM QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD ITS T-OUTPUT ACCORDINGLY...OFFERING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO
FAVORED AREAS ALSO A GOOD BET IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT MONDAY...
ON THE LARGE SCALE THE LONG RANGE FEATURES A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL FALLING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE US FROM NW
CANADA. SO A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO BUT DIFFER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SO BUT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY SO JUST SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND NOTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FRONT SLIDES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY IS WHERE THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/GEFS
MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
GEM SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SPREADING
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SORT OF WAVE ON THE FRONT
GENERATES UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THAT FAR OUT, BUT RESPECTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS HAVE PUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY...FINALLY LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN NW
CANADA THIS MORNING WILL MAKE IT'S PRESENCE FELT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOCAL VLIFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG MAINLY AT
KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 12-13Z PERHAPS IFR AT KMSS FOR A WHILE AS WELL.
KEPT OUT OF KBTV BUT COULD BE LURKING OVER THE RIVER OTHERWISE VFR
WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS CALM BECOMING S-SE 10 KTS OR LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. 
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. PATCHY IFR/LIFR IN MIST AND FOG
POSSIBLE 06Z-12Z TUE/WED AT CLIMO-FAVORED TERMINALS OF KMPV/KSLK.
06Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON

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