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SKIVT-L  November 2014, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2014, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 16 Nov 2014 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (199 lines)

Expires:201411162100;;489836
FPUS51 KBTV 161120
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
616 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

VTZ006-162100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
616 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.MONDAY...SNOW OR RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN OR SLEET OR SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SLEET OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
$$

Expires:201411161200;;490247
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   32  20  61 S10       30.25F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    29  19  66 S9        30.26F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  19  78 MISG      30.24F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      24  17  74 S3        30.23F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  20  61 S5        30.26F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      27  18  69 SE6       30.26F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      21  17  84 CALM      30.32S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    31  25  80 S5        30.23S                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  26  23  89 S6        30.22F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      23  18  81 CALM      30.29F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A W14         N/A  WCI   6          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  28  80 SE18        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  28  80 SW23        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  25  74 S8          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;489979
FXUS61 KBTV 161126
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. COLD AIR FOLLOWS AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 618 AM EST SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR 630 AM
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES
REMAIN AND THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL THE ONLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.
MAIN WEATHER STORY OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL FEATURE A MESSY MIX OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING TO RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD...CROSSING OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE JUST
AHEAD OF THE TROF AND MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM...BUT MAIN
LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA...BRINGING A COLD
OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKER LOW NEAR THE
COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY START OUT AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX LATER MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH...THEN EVENTUALLY RAIN. THINK THE MIX WILL MAINLY BE A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX SINCE ITS NOT TOO COLD AT THE SURFACE YET TO
EXPECT FREEZING RAIN. THAT BEING SAID...COULD NOT RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY...INCLUDED ALL PRECIP TYPES. MONDAY NIGHT ANY PRECIP
THAT CONTINUES SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST QPF COMES THROUGH WHEN WE
SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING RAIN...THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ALL
MODELS HANDLING THERMAL PROFILES SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY. A TRACE TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CHANGE TO MIXED
PRECIP AND THEN RAIN...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO STAY COLD THE LONGEST AND THEREFORE HAVE THE MOST
SNOW ACCUMULATION. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS STILL ON TRACK TO BE AROUND A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL VT WITH SOME SE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. COLD AIR
STREAMS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM
CHANGING ALL PRECIP BACK TO SNOW. LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ALSO TURN BACK ON AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MENTIONED
FOR THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME TEENS IN THE DACKS.
MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. A QUICK THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTED AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM EST SUNDAY...BIG STORY FOR MID AND LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME WILL BE UNSEASONABLE CHILL AND PRONOUNCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS SECONDARY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS
SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES VARY OVER TIME WITH APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL DISCRETE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUT THE BOTTOM
LINE IS FOR DAILY TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIND
OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN 240 AND 290 WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND SOUTH SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH
STRONG LAKE RESPONSE OWING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY AND RATHER HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS OUR NRN NY
SNOWBELTS WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TUE
NT INTO WED MORNING AND AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...SCT SHSN ALSO A GOOD BET WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES
AND FAIRLY FAST WESTERLY FLOW FOSTERING EFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM
TRANSPORT OF ANY LAKE SNOWS. ACCUMULATIONS WON'T BE NEARLY AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IN THE LAKE SNOWBELTS...BUT A FEW INCHES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCNLY
GUSTY 14-22Z SUN. SCT LAKE EFFECT SHSN AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS
TO AFFECT KSLK/KMSS TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AFTER 00Z LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES WITH SCT SHSN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NRN NY AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FLOW TRENDING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS
AFTER 06Z. MAINLY DRY AT VT TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON TO 06Z TUE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND.
06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...SCT/BKN MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH MVFR AND OCCNL IFR SHSN MORE
PREVALENT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES/SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

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May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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