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SKIVT-L  November 2014, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2014, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Nov 2014 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (192 lines)

Expires:201411152100;;443631
FPUS51 KBTV 151127
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

VTZ006-152100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
624 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 30. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
$$

Expires:201411151200;;443912
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  28  15  58 NW14      30.21R WCI  17          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    22  14  71 W8        30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    25  11  55 NW8       30.18R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     20  17  88 MISG      30.15R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  22  16  79 CALM      30.15R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      22  19  86 CALM      30.20R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    25  18  74 N3        30.18R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FLURRIES  26  16  65 VRB3      30.19R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    26  15  63 CALM      30.20S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      20  13  75 CALM      30.15R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    25  19  78 SW3       30.18R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A NW15        N/A  WCI  -6          
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  23  74 W12         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  18  55 NW17        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  18  59 NW6         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;443611
FXUS61 KBTV 151125
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. EXCEPTION WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAKING
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 624 AM EST SATURDAY...CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. LATER THIS AFTERNOON FLOW BECOMES
FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THIS
LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
THE FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THAT AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
LOW TRACKS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SECONDARY LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL. 540 LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR
AREA...MAKING PRECIPITATION TYPE HARD TO DETERMINE. THE ECMWF HAS
THE WARMEST SOLUTION AND WOULD GIVE US A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GFS IS A BIT COLDER...BUT STILL NOT A COMPLETE SNOW EVENT.
ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...AND MOST OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT IF COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW COULD HAVE OUR
FIRST PLOWABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL JUST
YET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EST SATURDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT SFC WAVE WILL BE
DEPARTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF PRECIPITATION TRENDING TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF SYSTEM RAINS/MIX
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT/MODERATE SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH INTO THE 
NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS ANCHORED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ALLOWS 
CP AIR TO CONTINUE SURGING SOUTHEAST INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS 
OF THE NATION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL AS HIGHS RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN 
THE TEENS AND 20S...TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. WITH MEAN 
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OSCILLATING BETWEEN 240 AND 290 DEGREES AND 
850 MB TEMPS AVERAGING FROM -12 TO -15C...STRONG LAKE ONTARIO 
RESPONSE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A CERTAINTY. INDEED A 
QUICK LOOK AT SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST LAKE INDUCED CAPES WILL 
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 700 
MB LEVEL. THUS WE'LL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWS...HEAVY AT TIMES IN OUR FAVORED SNOWBELTS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES INTO WESTERN 
ESSEX COUNTY NY. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT IN 
INTO VERMONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TUESDAY 
EVENING...AND AGAIN BY WED NT/THU. THE GREEN MTN SPINE SHOULD 
RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT 
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AVERAGE 30-40 KTS SOME LIGHT 
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE VERMONT VALLEY FLOORS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
BIG WINNERS WILL BE THE NEW YORK SNOWBELTS HOWEVER. INDEED...BY THE 
TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE SOME FAVORED LOCALES MAY BE MEASURING 
QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM 00Z ONWARD.
MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES AT MOST TERMINALS
TODAY...THEN TRENDING BKN/OVC VFR AGAIN IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME.
SOME SCT FLURRIES/-SHSN POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMSS AFTER 00Z BUT SHOULD
BE LIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN TO 12Z MON...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR -SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KSLK.
12Z MON TO 06Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/MIXED PCPN AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MIX AT KMPV/KRUT.
06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...SCT/BKN MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SHSN/FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND
OCCNL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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