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SKIVT-L  December 2014, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2014, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 8 Dec 2014 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (194 lines)

Expires:201412082100;;495871
FPUS51 KBTV 081126
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014

VTZ006-082100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
623 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR SLEET. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...SLEET OR RAIN LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SLEET
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S.
$$

Expires:201412081200;;496234
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 08 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOSUNNY 9 -1 64 E6 30.73S
MONTPELIER MOSUNNY -4 -8 83 CALM 30.72R
MORRISVILLE MOSUNNY -3 -7 82 CALM 30.74S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A -4 -8 83 MISG 30.73S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR -5 -10 79 CALM 30.69S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 9 7 92 CALM 30.69F
RUTLAND* MOSUNNY 9 0 66 SE10 30.65F WCI -6
SPRINGFIELD MOSUNNY 7 -1 70 CALM 30.75R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 6 -1 73 CALM 30.74S
NEWPORT* FAIR -5 -9 83 CALM 30.71S
BENNINGTON MOSUNNY 11 5 77 CALM 30.63S
SUTTON* N/A -4 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A -8 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 1 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 10 N/A N/A SE17 N/A WCI -7
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 14 3 62 NW8 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 16 10 79 W7 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 14 12 92 E6 N/A
$$

Expires:No;;495825
FXUS61 KBTV 081123
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND STALLS AROUND LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
VERMONT. GUSTY WINDS AND THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES ALONG WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA TODAY FOR DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EST MONDAY...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THUS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW AND IN SOME PLACES NOTICEABLY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET. AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE LONG ISLAND AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SPREADS UP ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER PARTS OF VERMONT TO ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF SNOW AND SLEET. EVENTUALLY A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PARTS OF
VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET... AND RAIN.
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXIST AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ENHANCE
THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL TO GO ALONG WITH A THERMAL PROFILE THAT
SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW. ALL OF THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVER
ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS IS WHY WE HAVE INCLUDED THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS THIS AREA
SHOULD PICK UP MORE SNOW WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH POWER
GIVEN THE HEAVIER NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S. THESE FACTORS PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG WITH SLEET MIXED IN
SUGGESTS THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS THE RIGHT CALL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EST MONDAY...OCCLUSION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WITH
CONTINUED DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL
INTENSITY WILL BE LIGHTER AND TREND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
TIME. A FEW OF THE LITERAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND ENERGY MAY HANG ON WELL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL LEAN TOWARD CONTINUITY AND OFFER
A DRYING TREND FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD. THIS SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE COURSE AT THIS POINT AND LEANS CLOSE TO MOST RECENT HPC
PROGS. OUTSIDE SOME BRIEF VALLEY MIX DURING WED NT/THU...THICKNESS
AND PBL THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW/SHSN AS UPPER LOW FILLS
AND LARGER-SCALE WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME. WHILE LOWER VALLEY LOCALES COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW
INCHES HERE AND THERE THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO QUITE WELL ACCUMULATION WISE. HARD TO PINPOINT
AREAS OF GREATEST ADDITIONAL HIGH-ELEVATION TOTALS AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
CLOSED GYRE ...DIRECTION OF MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WEAK BUNDLES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW. IF I HAD TO MAKE A HUNCH...BIG WINNERS IN OUR AREA FROM THE
EVENT AS A WHOLE MIGHT BE THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLDEST STORM-DURATION THICKNESS
PROFILES WILL RESIDE. TIME WILL TELL. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...
DAILY MEANS TO AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 12 KNOTS
(EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS). MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR BUT HAVE
OFFERED MVFR CIGS AT KMPV AFTER 03Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COASTAL LOW.
00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

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March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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