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SKIVT-L  December 2014, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2014, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 14 Dec 2014 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (194 lines)

Expires:201412142100;;769160
FPUS51 KBTV 141127
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

VTZ006-142100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
624 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. 
$$

Expires:201412141200;;769588
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    28  25  88 CALM      29.88R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  22  88 CALM      29.85R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.85R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     27  25  92 MISG      29.83R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    28  24  86 CALM      29.83R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    21  21 100 CALM      29.87S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  25  93 MISG      29.85S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    24  22  91 S3        29.84R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    27  26  95 N3        29.88R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    25  23  93 CALM      29.84R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    30  28  92 CALM      29.85S FOG              
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
$$

Expires:No;;769561
FXUS61 KBTV 141135
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON AND BRING DRIER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEGINNING 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
INTO THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK 
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL SEE A 
MINOR WARMING TREND FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S TO NEAR 40 BY 
WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING TO THE LOW 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. 
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN 
THE EARLY MORNING TODAY SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EST SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE.
BLENDING IN OBS WITH A BIT OF THE LAV FOR TEMPS. HAD TO TWEAK THE
TEMPS ON THE SUMMITS AS THE FORECAST WAS TOO COLD IN THE DACKS
AND A BIT TOO WARM IN THE GREENS. RADAR ECHOS ARE NEARLY GONE AND
SO THE ONLY REAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FZDZ IN NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 410AM...A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS ARE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EXPECT THE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW TO END BY MID MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN
IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS AN 8-10 DEGREE INVERSION INVERSION
BETWEEN 925MB AND 900MB WHICH IS COMBINING WARM AIR ALOFT WITH A
VERY SHALLOW SUB ZERO SATURATED LAYER AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPSTREAM OBS IN OTTAWA SHOWED
SOME FZDZ OVERNIGHT AND WE'VE RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME FZDZ IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY EARLIER. BY 14Z THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE
WARMED TO 0C OR ABOVE SO I EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR FZDZ TO DIMINISH
BY THEN. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FZDZ TO
CAUSE ICY ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME HEATING THE 
INVERSION WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN ALLOWING THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER 
TO PARTIALLY MIX. HOWEVER AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO MIX EXPECT A
STRATUS DECK TO BUILD IN SO THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
PERSISTENT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE RH FIELD IN THE NAM AND RAP
MODELS SHOW SOLID 2000-3000 FT LAYER OF GREATER THAN 95% RH WHICH
WOULD LEAVE ME TO DOUBT HOW MUCH WE BREAK OUT TODAY. AS SUCH
EXPECT THE TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN GUIDANCE TODAY WARMING
TO THE MID TO LOW 30S BUT ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH PERSISTENT
DRIER WEATHER. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF
PARTIALLY SATURATED AIR AT THE NEAR SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP A STRATUS
DECK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE INVERSION FINALLY BEGINS TO MIX TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL WEAKEN THE AMOUNT
OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT EXPECT A WEAK WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT
WITH AN ASSOCIATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THAT 
LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  RIGHT NOW 
THERMAL PROFILES OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL 
FOR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH A MAX 
925-700MB LAYER SURFACE TEMP BETWEEN 2.5 TO 4 C WHEREAS THE ECMWF 
RANGES BETWEEN 1 TO 2.5 DEGREE C ON TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHICH THERMAL PROFILE IS MORE ACCURATE I OPTED
TO GO WITH JUST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL INCLUDE MORE DETAIL
ABOUT PTYPE IN FURTHER UPDATES. QPF TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM ARE ON
THE LOWER SIDE WITH AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE BETWEEN A 0.10" TO
0.25" IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL TRYING TO
BRING IN SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND HAS A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA REDEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC
WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON-18Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING VFR WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS

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July 2009, Week 1
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May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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