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January 2015, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 8 Jan 2015 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (199 lines)
Expires:201501082100;;920030
FPUS51 KBTV 080846
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

VTZ006-082100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
343 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 8 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 37 BELOW. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 1 BELOW. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. LOWS 5 TO
15 ABOVE. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO
5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
$$

Expires:201501081200;;926668
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY   -10 -19  64 E8        30.24S                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY    -19 -23  81 W3        30.15S                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY    -18 -25  70 CALM      30.19S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A    -18 -23  77 MISG      30.18R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR     -21 -28  68 CALM      30.12R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR     -10 -19  64 SE5       30.22F                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY    -11 -17  77 N3        30.19S                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY    -10 -21  58 CALM      30.22R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR     -18 -25  71 CALM      30.23F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR     -18 -26  66 SW6       30.15R                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY    -11 -17  75 CALM      30.22R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    -24 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     -8 -18  59 SW6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     -4  -9  77 SW5         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     -6 -11  77 SE12        N/A  WCI -24          
$$

Expires:No;;926855
FXUS61 KBTV 081147
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 AM EST THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT UP THE WIND CHILL
WARNING THROUGH NOON TODAY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLOUD UP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ALSO SHOW DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRIES TO REDEVELOP THERE. BTV 4KM
MODEL SHOWS THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL GET SHEARED APART BY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY EXPECTING A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OUT THERE
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EST THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECTING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID 20S. BTV 4 KM MODEL
SHOWING ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...VERY QUIET DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WL FEATURE NORTHERN TIER CONUS DOMINATED BY FAST WESTERLY
FLW ALOFT...FROM NORTHERN STREAM JET. THE DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS
WHICH HAS IMPACTED MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WL SLOWLY RETREAT
BACK INTO CENTRAL CANADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH OUR TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY. WL MENTION CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST
VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN DACKS/SLV...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE WL
ENHANCE SNOWFALL/QPF. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WL
IMPACT OUR REGION...BEFORE STRONG 1045MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
OUR REGION FROM TUES THRU THURS. THIS WL RESULT IN LARGE DAILY
SWINGS IN TEMPS FROM COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...EXPECT TRRN
DRIVEN THERMAL PROFILES WITH COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS AND WARMEST READINGS IN THE MIDSLOPE
SECTIONS. WL MENTION LOWS -5F TO +5F FOR MONDAY THRU WEDS...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME VALUES ARE CLOSER TO -10F AT SLK/NEK
WITH +10F MIDSLOPE MTNS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MTNS TO MID 20S
VALLEYS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK STILL HAVE A SYSTEM ON OUR RADAR...AS POTENT
S/W ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUES AND TRAVELS
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND TWD THE NC COAST BY 12Z THURS.
MAIN QUESTION WL BE AMOUNT OF PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TWD THE MID OF NEXT WEEK AND IF THE SYSTEM
CAN MAKE THE TURN UP THE COAST AND IMPACT OUR CWA. ATTM THINKING
THE PHASING MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE FAST FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
CONUS AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACRS OUR
TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF BTV. SFC WINDS HAVE JUST SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AT BTV...SO EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL
DISSIPATE...ALONG WITH IMPROVING CIGS AS THE FLW CONTS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL LAKE
ONTARIO MOISTURE BACK INTO SLK/MSS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY. EXPECT VIS BTWN 1-3SM AND MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT THESE
TWO TAF SITES. ALSO...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACRS OUR TAF SITES BTWN 03Z AND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VIS LIKELY AND MVFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
REDEVELOP AT SLK/MSS AFT 18Z FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNTS.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR TAF SITES BTWN 15Z SUNDAY AND 06Z
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHSN ACTIVITY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 645 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW FRAZIL ICE TO DEVELOP
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS, WHICH WILL BUILD UP AND STICK TO
OBSTRUCTIONS IN RIVER FLOWS INCLUDING AROUND BENDS, BRIDGE
FOOTINGS AND THE SHORELINE. GIVEN THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
COLD WEATHER AND NO RESPITE IN SIGHT, FREEZEUP JAMS MAY DEVELOP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...KGM

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