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SKIVT-L  February 2015, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 2015, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 7 Feb 2015 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (192 lines)

Expires:201502072100;;283630
FPUS51 KBTV 071145
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015

VTZ006-072100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
642 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS
AROUND 4 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS
AROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS
AROUND 8 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 19.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. LOWS
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO. 
$$

Expires:201502071200;;283084
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  14   5  67 NE9       30.05S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    12   7  80 NW6       30.01R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  12   6  77 N9        30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     14   6  70 MISG      29.97F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  12   5  76 CALM      29.97R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT SNOW  14  13  98 CALM      30.02S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    19  12  73 NW5       29.99R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY     9   5  84 CALM      30.00R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY     9   1  72 CALM      30.08R                  
NEWPORT*       PTSUNNY    8   1  75 NW6       29.99R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    20  11  68 CALM      30.01F                  
SUTTON*          N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
$$

Expires:No;;283397
FXUS61 KBTV 071137
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER VERY
COLD AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
THEN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHARP
THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND WARM TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6
TO 12 INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WITH LATEST
FORECAST.
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW INCREASE TONIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH PUTS US IN FAVORABLE POSITION 
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT...ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE 
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS 
WILL SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW CENTER WHICH WILL PASS 
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO 
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. 
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME 
MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE EVENT 
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO ADD UP...SO BY LATER MONDAY EXPECT 
A GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS 
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST 
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH THE 
LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF ALL REMAINS ON 
TRACK...BELIEVE NORTHERN PARTS OF WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE TURNED 
INTO AN ADVISORY...WHILE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE 
UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS THE EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH 
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SATURDAY...LOOKING OUT TO NEXT WEEK NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT DIVIDE EASTWARD
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW.
WE'LL BE WRAPPING UP OUR LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WITH 
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, AND 
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY. A FEW LINGER SNOW SHOWERS 
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY UNDER COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD
BE DRY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. NEXT SYSTEM
QUICKLY APPROACHES AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY, INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. LOOKING LIKE YOUR TYPICAL CLIPPER WITH LOW MOISTURE AND
HIGH FLUFF FACTOR LEADING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BIG STORY WILL BE WHAT'S BEHIND THE CLIPPER AS A STRONG 1040MB HIGH 
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
EXITING CLIPPER EXPLODING OFFSHORE WILL BRING VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ON NORTHERLY FLOW WITH 925MB TEMPS
CRASHING TO -30F THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COULD TURN
OUT TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON, AS IF IT
ALREADY HASN'T BEEN COLD ENOUGH. DOESN'T GET MUCH BETTER FOR
FRIDAY EITHER AS TEMPS MIGHT NOT BREAK THE ZERO MARK. WIND
CHILL'S WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LIGHT
SNOW IS CONTINUING AT MOST OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SNOW WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER 00-03Z. A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION IS
POSSIBLE FROM 22-02Z BEFORE WE GET INTO A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING, TRENDING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION
WILL BE KSLK WHERE HONESTLY I DON'T THINK IT EVER STOPS SNOWING
AND GENERALLY STAYS IFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR
WINDS, GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10KTS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE ITS
CALM TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL TURNING NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY - 18Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW.
18Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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