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SKIVT-L  April 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L April 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 15 Apr 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (207 lines)

Expires:201504152000;;327300
FPUS51 KBTV 151032
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VTZ006-152000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
628 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
$$

Expires:201504151100;;327388
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON       N/A     33  26  75 E3        30.16R                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     28  23  81 S5        30.15R                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY     27  24  89 CALM      30.16R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  25  88 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     33  24  71 CALM      30.13R                  
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     32  26  80 CALM      30.16R                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     30  25  80 SE7       30.15R                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     29  25  85 CALM      30.12S                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A     29  25  84 SE3       30.17R                  
NEWPORT*         N/A     34  25  68 W3        30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     28  23  81 CALM      30.13S                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  27  60 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  27  52 N5          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  28  70 E1          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;323360
FXUS61 KBTV 150850
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE REGION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND 
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES 
ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S TODAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 60S ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT 
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. WILL SEE NORTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE. 925-850MB LAYER TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND
LOWER BY SEVERAL DEGREES. STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHEAST VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING 
HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING +10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START 
TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 
60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND 
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN 
INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS 
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT 
18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE 
REGION...THEN SOME DRYING WILL FOLLOW. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT  
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK, AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS
RATHER WEAK SO FEEL THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEATHER
TURNS MORE UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND PHASES WITH A
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FORMING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT THE OVERALL MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS SIMILAR WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON TAPPING INTO RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. PROBABILITIES FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE INCREASING WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE FINER DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WE STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S, BUT THE TREND WILL BE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY GUSTY UP TOWARDS 20KTS. A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SKC ELSEWHERE. ANY CLOUDS AND WINDS DISSIPATE
AFTER 23-00Z FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z FRIDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES (15-20
PERCENT) AND MODERATE NORTH WINDS (15-20 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS: FINE
DEAD FUELS ARE REPORTED SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN VERMONT TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE STILL TOO
WET ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHEST WINDS AND DRIEST FUELS JUXTAPOSE 11AM THRU
6PM ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT UNDER EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THUS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY. EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILARLY LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL 
NOT BE AS STRONG...EASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...IT
APPEARS RIVERS WILL CREST WITHIN BANKFULL AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD THREAT
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...BANACOS/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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