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SKIVT-L  April 2015, Week 4

SKIVT-L April 2015, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 25 Apr 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (190 lines)

Expires:201504252000;;783832
FPUS51 KBTV 250743
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VTZ006-252000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
340 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.TODAY...CLOUDY. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING
TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
$$

Expires:201504251100;;790932
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FLURRIES 35 20 54 NW10 29.83S
MONTPELIER PTSUNNY 30 21 69 N14 29.80S WCI 19
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 31 22 69 MISG 29.80S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 24 72 MISG 29.76R
LYNDONVILLE* FLURRIES 30 23 75 SW7 29.76S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 34 22 61 NW5 29.81S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 30 23 74 N5 29.80S
SPRINGFIELD SUNNY 33 21 61 NW6 29.78S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 33 23 67 W7 29.83R
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 30 24 80 W9G16 29.75F
BENNINGTON SUNNY 30 22 72 SW7 29.81S
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 28 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 19 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 36 27 69 W16 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 36 25 64 NW13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 36 23 60 N8 N/A
$$

Expires:No;;790602
FXUS61 KBTV 251012
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW
RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. CRNT WATER VAPOR
TRENDS SHOW DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ME...WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBONS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. NEXT 5H VORT AND
MOISTURE IS CRNTLY OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WL DIVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NY/VT TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST BTV4KM AND NAM12 SHOW BEST 1000 TO 700MB RH AND OMEGA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST QPF FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WL
MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...CHC IN THE NEK...AND
SCHC ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WL START AROUND 500 FEET
THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY JUMP TO 2800 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS LLVL
WARMING OCCURS. QPF WL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY <0.10 WITH SNOWFALL BTWN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE
2500 FEET. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WL
MENTION HIGHS 35 TO 40 MTNS TO 45 TO 50F CPV/SLV...AND MID 50S VSF.
IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED
85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH
SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC
ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION
LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M
40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE
WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW
COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 611 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW
LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS VT/NY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TUE/WED WITH MUCH NEEDED DRYING AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DESPITE THIS BRIEF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LARGE TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION
AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING.
THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENETERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY
COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED NGT/THU THRU
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT DOESNT APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS
THIS PAST WEEK AND TEMPS COOLING FROM MID WEEK HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD
AS RECENT AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.
STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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