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SKIVT-L  April 2015, Week 4

SKIVT-L April 2015, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 26 Apr 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (184 lines)

Expires:201504262000;;832368
FPUS51 KBTV 260724
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

VTZ006-262000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
321 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
$$

Expires:201504261100;;839150
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    43  35  73 NW7       29.71R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    36  31  82 CALM      29.71R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    36  33  89 CALM      29.70S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  33  85 MISG      29.66S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    37  32  84 CALM      29.68R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  33  72 N5        29.70R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    37  34  87 CALM      29.70R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    37  32  82 CALM      29.69R                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A     37  35  96 CALM      29.71S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  35  94 CALM      29.68S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  31  70 CALM      29.69R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  36  81 NW5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  34  75 N9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  36  75 N15         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;832519
FXUS61 KBTV 260730
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT 
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE 
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR 
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 
24 HOURS AGO...WITH DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM 
EAST TO WEST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE 
SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL 
WAA. HAVE NOTED WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA 
THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY. 
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO 
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS 
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT 
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS BTWN 
16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY LIGHT QPF 
EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 2000 FEET THIS 
MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H 
TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE 
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH 
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK 
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE 
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR 
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. 
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON 
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN 
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H 
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS 
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES 
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL 
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. 
BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER 
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF 
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND 
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. 
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS 
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN 
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE 
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND 
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH 
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN 
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER 
THAN CRNT THINKING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER 
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO 
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF 
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS 
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE 
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING 
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN 
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS 
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS 
REGION.
RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE 
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE 
NEXT WEEKEND
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE
VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS.
MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN'T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT
DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO

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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
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April 1999, Week 3
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April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
March 1999, Week 2
March 1999, Week 1
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February 1999, Week 1
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