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SKIVT-L  May 2015, Week 5

SKIVT-L May 2015, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 29 May 2015 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (231 lines)

Expires:201505292000;;352669
FPUS51 KBTV 290808
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


VTZ006-292000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. LOWS AROUND 50. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 

$$


Expires:201505291100;;358643
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   58  55  90 S3        30.33R                  
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   55  53  93 CALM      30.36R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOSUNNY   56  52  86 NW3       30.33R FOG              
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     52  49  91 CALM      30.34R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     53  53 100 CALM      30.33R                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     54  48  82 CALM      30.33R                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     53  52  96 CALM      30.31R                  
HIGHGATE*      FOG       51  51  99 CALM      30.30R VSB 1            
NEWPORT*       FOG       51  51  99 CALM      30.33R VSB 1/2          
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     49  47  93 CALM      30.31R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  55 100 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 NW7         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  54  94 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;358812
FXUS61 KBTV 291048
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER NAM MOS
POPS FOR TONIGHT. BTV 4KM AND ECMWF SHOWING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. MODELS A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
VERMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT 18Z
SATURDAY IS ONLY 20-30 KNOTS...AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND
11000 FEET...SO ANY HAIL THAT DEVELOPS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING.

EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT FRIDAY...A STRONG 1039MB AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES EXPECT A LARGE SWING FROM
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTN.
STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE
DACKS AND NEK ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST MEX FOR SLK SHOWING A
30F. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH NORTH WINDS.

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
PLACEMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. GFS KEEPS OUR CWA DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD AND BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS POTENT 5H
VORT AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WAY TO OUR
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPS. THINKING THE ECMWF IS A BIT
AGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC
LOW PRES...GIVEN POSITION OF HIGH...SO WILL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY
ATTM. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM A DEGREE OR TWO A DAY...AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE
MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M/U 70S MTNS
TO L 80S WARMER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...1028MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR TAF SITES TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. ANY LEFTOVER FOG/BR AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BURN
OFF BY 13Z...GIVEN HIGH SUN ANGLE. STILL EXPECTING AN HOUR OF
IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BY MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTN...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTN.
EXPECTING THE RAIN TO LOWER VIS BTWN 1-3SM IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC HIGH
PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (1V4) IS NOT CURRENTLY
REPORTING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE 1V4 ASOS COMMUNICATIONS LINE
WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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