Expires:201506092000;;875090
FPUS51 KBTV 091029
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015


VTZ006-092000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
626 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND
70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201506091100;;875395
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON RAIN 64 61 90 SE5 29.63F FOG
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 63 61 93 S7 29.68F
MORRISVILLE HVY RAIN 64 61 90 CALM 29.67R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 64 61 90 MISG 29.63F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT RAIN 64 61 91 CALM 29.68S VSB 3/4
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 66 66 100 S3 29.62F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 64 61 88 S5 29.65S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 62 60 93 SE3 29.69S
HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 64 63 98 CALM 29.63S
NEWPORT* RAIN 62 61 99 CALM 29.67R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 68 63 84 S9G21 29.67S
SUTTON* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 52 N/A N/A N7 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A N/A N/A N/A S2 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 63 63 100 SW9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 64 100 NE2 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;875121
FXUS61 KBTV 091030
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END LATE TONIGHT WITH A DRY
START TO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND SEE
NO REASON FOR ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A BRIEF
BREAK AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES A BIT NEGATIVE TILT
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOWS THREAT MAY BE A BIT LIMITED TODAY. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND
MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF OUR AREA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LIMITED
WITH CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A
BIT OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD BE WHAT DRIVES THE
INSTABILITY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME
FEEL PARAMETERS NECESSARY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT COULD
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER ARE PRETTY LIMITED AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
ENHANCED WORDING. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS IS ALSO SHIFTING
EAST AND FEEL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WOULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING HAS DECREASED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE...BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY TO START THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO
THE 70S TO AROUND 80. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIME COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER THUNDER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY WITH
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS VERMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIME OF
DAY NOT THAT FAVORABLE AS INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT
DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY WE WILL HAVE OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM OUR
WEST...BUT THE LOW FAR OFF TO OUR NORTH. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT...MAKING TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH OVC CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER. SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL.
EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THEN...UNTIL AREAS OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER REDEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
FOR SLK AND POINTS EAST. SPECIFIC TIMING STILL IS A BIT UNCLEAR AT
THIS POINT...BUT HAVE SHOWN 4 SM SHRA AFTER 19Z TO SHOW SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING BY
ABOUT 00Z...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH
AROUND 10 KNOTS INITIALLY, BUT STEADILY LOWER INTO THE EVENING AS
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS ON WEDS...WITH VFR DEVELOPING. SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK THRU WEDS MORNING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE WEDS INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND IFR RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS...IF MORE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP...PATCHY
FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY MORNING AT MPV/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

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