Expires:201506202000;;394992
FPUS51 KBTV 201045
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015


VTZ006-202000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
642 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70.

$$


Expires:201506201100;;394704
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 49 45 86 CALM 30.12R
MONTPELIER FOG 41 41 100 CALM 30.18R VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 43 41 93 CALM 30.16R VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 42 40 92 MISG 30.15R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 40 40 97 CALM 30.17R FOG
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 44 44 100 CALM 30.13R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 46 37 71 SE8 30.14S
SPRINGFIELD FOG 42 41 96 CALM 30.17R VSB<1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 49 46 88 SE3 30.12R
NEWPORT* FAIR 43 42 95 SW5 30.15R
BENNINGTON CLEAR 44 41 89 CALM 30.12R
SUTTON* N/A 41 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 37 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 41 N/A N/A SE8 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 54 46 76 SE8 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 50 87 S8 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 52 48 87 SE3 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;394976
FXUS61 KBTV 201045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON IN WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. RAINFALL MAY BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE EXITING THE REGION EASTWARD LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...AFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
TODAY, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW
ANY RESIDUAL FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO BURN OFF QUICKLY. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL SEE RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC.925MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS AND
KEEPS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL TO THE SOUTH, BUT SOME
MOISTURE FROM BILL LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE HIGHER PWATS POSSIBLE, BUT LACK DEFINED CONVEYOR BELT OF
MOISTURE AS WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN THE LIGHTER
SIDE. ANY MOISTURE FEED DOES APPEAR TO BE AIMED MORE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO REGION IN ADVANCE OF WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
MAINLY AFTER 06Z AS THE 06ZNAM INDICATES SOME LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH CLOUDINESS AND
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS, EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND
1.75 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS..ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL SEE GIVEN PROSPECTS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC SHOWERS. 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO, BUT CLOUDS AND THREAT OF RAIN WILL HINDER
INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID, GFS AND NAM BRING SURFACE BASED CAPE
OF 800-1200 J/KG OVER THE AREA WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AT -6.
LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
ATTEMPTS TO PHASE REMNANTS OF BILL WITH THIS LOW, BRINGING THE
BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ALSO
DURING THIS PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, NOW BETTER DEFINED
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SO WHILE WE EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME LINGER POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT,
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN PWATS DECREASING TO 1.2 INCHES AND LESS BY 12Z
MONDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST OF VERMONT ON MONDAY. SOME SLIGHT RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD
IN BRIEFLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY. BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL
PERSIST WITH NOT MUCH FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

AS FOR TOTAL QPF FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MODERATE
RISES ON ALL AREA RIVERS. RIVERS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW BANKFULL BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AS SOME RISES ON MAIN
STEM RIVERS MAY NEAR ACTION STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

ON TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY...THEN
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...PER SUPER-BLEND
POPS. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINTING AT A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z.
CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A LOW TO MID
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 22Z SATURDAY THROUGH 02Z
SUNDAY AROUND 050-070 FEET.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN-12Z MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA.
12Z MON-00Z WED...VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHRA.
00Z WED-00Z THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY WITH FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 1-1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH DRYING HAS OCCURRED FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
RECENT RAINFALL MAY KEEP SOILS MOIST. WHILE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY, RIVERS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RISES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SITUATION AS IT UNFOLDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...KGM

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