Expires:201506212000;;437249
FPUS51 KBTV 210754
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015


VTZ006-212000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
351 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506211100;;444047
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    66  62  87 S5        29.78S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  64  61  90 CALM      29.82S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     62  60  93 MISG      29.81S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  60  59  97 CALM      29.85F VSB 1            
MIDDLEBURY*    HVY RAIN  64  64 100 CALM      29.80S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    64  59  82 SE9       29.81S                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  60  59  96 CALM      29.84F                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      64  63  97 CALM      29.79S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    60  60  97 S3        29.83S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    67  65  93 NE6       29.79F                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W16         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  63  94 S1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  63 100 S6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  63  94 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;441003
FXUS61 KBTV 210907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
507 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 507 AM EDT SUNDAY...BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THIS MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z-18Z FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
AREAS WEST.MOST PREVALENT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AS AREA OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION
EXITS EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL ALSO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BEFORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS UPPER LEVEL JET COINCIDING WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 40KTS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S, INCREASING INSTABILITY MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MESOSCALE MODELS
SHOW CONVECTION STARTING AROUND 20Z AND SPREADING EASTWARD. EXPECT
APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -5 WILL BE ABLE ORGANIZE
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE PROJECTED IN BTV-4KM WRF MOVING FROM THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE ADIRONDACKS (EARLY AFTN) ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN VT MID AFTN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK...SO OUTFLOW
DOMINANT CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
QUICKLY LATER IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY LESSENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 507 AM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, BUT PWATS SHOW QUICK DRYING TREND WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EAST OF VERMONT BY 12Z MONDAY. BASIN AVERAGE TOTAL QPF
WILL BE 0.75-1.0" DURING THE 24-HR PERIOD 06Z SUN - 06Z MON...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF HEAVIER TSTMS. A FEW RIVERS MAY RISE
SEVERAL FEET THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
BASED ON CURRENT RAINFALL FCST.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASING WIND FLOW AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO ALREADY GUSTY S/SW FLOW, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ON TUESDAY, MAKING HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SHOWING A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PER LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
RUNS...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL STILL HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE OPTED
TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MODELS
AGAIN SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SATURDAY FORECAST AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES AGAIN CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SUNDAY SHOWING A
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
BATCH OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK 
APPROACHING SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECTING A
BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER
18Z SUNDAY. HAVE PUT THE VICINITY TERM FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
TAF FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-12Z MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA LIKELY. 
12Z MON-06Z TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX. 
06Z TUE-06Z WED...MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT. 
06Z WED ONWARD...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO OVER A HALF INCH WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCURRED. A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH FORECAST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL KEEP SOILS SATURATED. WHILE MAIN STEM
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY, RIVERS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW BANKFULL. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
RISES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES
HYDROLOGY...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html