Expires:201506162000;;196567
FPUS51 KBTV 160712
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015


VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
309 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201506161100;;204196
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    66  59  78 S8        29.87F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    55  53  93 S7        29.96F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    59  54  83 VRB3      29.93S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     57  52  83 MISG      29.92F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    55  51  86 SE5       29.96S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    65  61  87 S5        29.89S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    57  50  77 SE10      29.92F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    55  54  96 S3        29.95F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    65  60  83 S6        29.85S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    55  53  91 S7        29.92S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    61  59  93 CALM      29.91F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W10         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  61  88 SE14        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  59  94 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  59  88 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;197531
FXUS61 KBTV 160752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EVERY TWO 
DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR 
TODAY, ON THURSDAY, AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S TO 
AROUND 80, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK
FOR TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 3-6 HOUR
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE BAND AND THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. BY LATER TODAY UPPER
TROUGH AND SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL SWING
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALONG THIS BAND MODEST DESTABILIZATION
IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 3-9 PM TIME FRAME. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
SUNSHINE, A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND BRIEFLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, FEEDING OFF RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL. THE
THREAT IS CONDITIONAL HOWEVER, AND IF WE STRUGGLE TO GET RID OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER (AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST), THEN INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT THREAT WOULD BE LOWER. AT ANY RATE, SHOULD A BAND OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOP IT WOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE SLV AND
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LAKE PLACID TO BURLINGTON TO ST
JOHNSBURY LINE BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYLIGHT AND DIMINISHING FORCING. AS SUCH I'VE MAINTAINED PRIOR
FORECAST WORDING, HIGHLIGHTING THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. MAX TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S, PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 70S NORTHWEST AND IN THE SLV WHICH
WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PARTIAL SUN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT TUESDAY...BY TONIGHT ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END
BY MIDNIGHT AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. AS WINDS TREND LIGHTER AND PBL STABILIZES OVERNIGHT,
PATCHY MIST/FOG WILL BE A GOOD BET GIVEN AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE
PROFILES AND FAVORABLE HYRDOLAPSE PROFILES. LOWS BY MORNING
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55, MILDEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AS 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING 
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS 
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING 
THROUGH THE 70S UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN 
THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV.

BY THURSDAY OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SWING INTO THE AREA. DECENT MOISTURE BAND (PWATS TO 1.5 
INCHES) AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUPPORT IDEA OF SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA IN PROXIMITY TO LEAD PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. A FEW STRONGER 
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS SPRING 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MODEST AT BEST WITH 
CLOUD COVER BEING THE LARGEST INHIBITOR. BASED OFF MOST RECENT MODEL 
925 MB THERMAL PROGS, DID RAISE MAX TEMPS UPWARD BY SEVERAL DEGREES 
FROM PRIOR FORECAST SHOWING VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 77 TO 82
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT, EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NW FLOW WILL SETTLE IN AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE M60S TO M70S AND IN
THE 50S NEAR THE SUMMITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH RETURN SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL 
ZONAL FLOW BRINGS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE FORM OF SEVERAL 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. 
MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS OF TIMING/TRACK AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH 
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIMES. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS START AT KMSS AND KPBG, MVFR AT
KBTV/KRUT AND KSLK WITH IFR AT KMPV. WITH CALM WINDS AND ONE
DEGREE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD, KSLK COULD SEE SOME IFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO THE IFR/MVFR CIGS.

EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, DETERIORATING CIGS
TO MVFR/IFR WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS STARTING BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AT
KMSS/KSLK...PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN
12Z-15Z AND KMPV AROUND 13Z-14Z. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN SHOWERS, BUT LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

DRYING TREND BEHIND THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL SEE MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN A MORE NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW TO
SE AROUND 21Z-23Z AT KMSS/KSLK...23Z-02Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AREAS EAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND, BUT
STRENGTH AND TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY THE
FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/EVENING HOURS, EXPECT FOGGY CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP AS RAINFALL DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT SKIES AND DIMINISH
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG WILL
GIVE WAY TO DAYTIME VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 352 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 KTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A LIGHT CHOP
ACROSS OPEN WATERS TODAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE
WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
EVENING AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKE WATERS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY TREND STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...JMG

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