Expires:201506182000;;299442
FPUS51 KBTV 181045
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015


VTZ006-182000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
641 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506181100;;299070
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    58  51  78 CALM      30.02F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    50  48  93 CALM      30.09F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    52  49  89 CALM      30.06F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     50  46  86 MISG      30.07S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      48  46  92 CALM      30.09F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    59  57  94 S3        30.05R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    54  46  76 SE9       30.08R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    50  49  96 CALM      30.10S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  52  88 S3        30.00F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  47  87 SW5       30.05F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    57  55  93 N3        30.07S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W14         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  54  77 SE12        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  55  88 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  55  88 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;295387
FXUS61 KBTV 180855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL
HELP LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN NY
MID-DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE BETWEEN 6-10C/KM WILL DEPEND
OF SURFACE HEATING, BUT ARE INDICATIVE OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS, BUT MODEST 0-1KM OF
10-20KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SOME
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM
500-1200 J/KG AND MARGINAL LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM -2 TO -5. A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE, BUT OVERALL LIFT
LACKING AS UPPER LEVEL JET OF 110+ KTS LAGS BEHIND INTO THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE JET REGIONS LINE UP OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY...JUST NORTH IN QUEBEC WILL SEE THE LEFT EXIT
REGION, WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVER CENTRAL NY
AROUND 06Z- 09Z.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL, THE OVERALL DISJOINTED-NESS
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. MUCAPE AND INSTABILITY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WILL SEE SOME WIND SHEAR, BUT
BEST LIFTING FROM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET LAG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BEST LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND UPPER
JET, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT.

PWATS OF 1-1.50" ALONG BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES OF 0.25 TO 0.75" EXPECTED.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, DO EXPECT CHANNELING UP THE ST
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FROM NW TO SE...EXITING SE VT FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON NW FLOW, ENDING SHOWERS BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SOON FOLLOW, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SETTLING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR, FRIDAY'S MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S. NEXT SUBJECT OF CONCERN WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE
REGION WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES
WITH M-U30S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL RECOVER IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH MAXES IN THE L-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE
NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF AND BRING SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WILL STICK
WITH PRIOR CONTINUITY AND KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A GENERALLY UNSETTLED DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL SHOWING
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MAINLY EFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECTING SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO
MONDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ECMWF MODEL TRIES TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL ECMWF IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES AS THIS MODEL HAD A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO AT 06Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT HAVE
A LOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING SOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
16Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS OF
15-25KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CHANNEL UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT POSSIBLE. CHOPPY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS AND ALONG THE BROAD LAKE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS
MARINE...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html