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SKIVT-L  June 2015, Week 4

SKIVT-L June 2015, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 22 Jun 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (245 lines)

Expires:201506222000;;492110
FPUS51 KBTV 221038
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015


VTZ006-222000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
635 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506221100;;492067
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    63  61  93 CALM      29.85R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    61  59  93 CALM      29.90R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    63  60  90 CALM      29.87R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     62  59  90 MISG      29.83R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    61  59  95 CALM      29.87R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    63  63 100 CALM      29.86R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    63  59  88 CALM      29.88R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       61  60  97 CALM      29.85R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    64  63  98 CALM      29.85R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    62  61  96 W5        29.86R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    64  60  87 MISG      29.89R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A NW13        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  63  94 SE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  64 100 S5          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  63 100 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;492198
FXUS61 KBTV 221042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
POTENTIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE RETURN MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT MONDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE AS TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE 500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.

BEHIND THIS TROUGH, RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
PROVIDING SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO L60S KEEP CONDITIONS MODERATELY HUMID. MAX
TEMPERATURES THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AS THE RIDGING SLIDES EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN LATER
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH MILD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND INCREASING CLOUDS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THIS SYSTEM IS A QUICK MOVER...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FLOW FIELD FOR LATE JUNE. WITH 850MB JET AROUND 50KTS EXPECT
SYNOPTIC WINDS GUSTS TO ALSO BE A HAZARD.

ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY EXPECTED AFTER 06Z...REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK. MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
SPC KEEPS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AS
MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1500J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
ALSO WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY AND UPPER
LEVEL JET MAY PUT PORTIONS OF VT IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRENGTHENING STORMS
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE CT RIVER DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY AS DEWPOINTS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES.

WINDY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH W-SW SFC
WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CHANNELING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN BUT SURFACE TROUGH MAY
PRODUCE A COUPLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS
HAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) MANUAL PROGS FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THAT IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE PENNSYLVANIA-NEW YORK
BORDER AND THEN MOVING THIS LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS LOW
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. FEEL THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES IN TRYING TO SUGGEST CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...I HAVE CUT BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND AM LEANING TOWARD A MORE
DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AT 0630Z MONDAY SHOWING
THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF VERMONT BY 09Z MONDAY.
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 14Z MONDAY.
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES BY 18Z MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z WED...MVFR/IFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
00Z WED-00Z SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOWS A RUNNING HIGH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AU SABLE RIVER
AND BARTON RIVER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN AREAS LAST
NIGHT. EXPECT RIVERS TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL, BUT RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS TODAY ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO STEADY OR START TO RECEDE.
HIGH FLOWS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES.

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES FROM
WEST TO EAST. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
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August 2008, Week 2
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
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August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 1
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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January 2002, Week 3
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March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 1
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