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SKIVT-L  August 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L August 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Aug 2015 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (220 lines)

Expires:201508152000;;055412
FPUS51 KBTV 150731
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015


VTZ006-152000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
328 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201508151100;;062129
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 71 63 75 S5 30.08R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 63 62 97 CALM 30.14S
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 66 64 93 CALM 30.11S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 66 64 93 MISG 30.08R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 65 64 97 CALM 30.12S VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 67 67 99 CALM 30.09S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 66 59 77 SE3 30.11S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 63 61 93 CALM 30.11R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 68 66 92 CALM 30.07R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 64 63 99 CALM 30.11R FOG
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 61 59 93 CALM 30.12R FOG
SUTTON* N/A 64 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A NW16 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 68 94 S13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 66 94 SW2 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;055783
FXUS61 KBTV 150753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX CROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS
MORNING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH VERTICAL ASCENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED WEST SOUTHWEST TO
EAST NORTHEAST STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS
BY 21Z. AT THIS POINT THE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SO THATS WHERE I ANTICIPATED THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS A
RIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AND WARMER AIRMASS. EXPECT TEMPS TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING. RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP
OVERNIGHT TO BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RIGHT THE MOST FAVOURABLE AREAS ARE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS IN CENTRAL VERMONT.
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK COULD HOLD OFF
THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BUT THE CLIMO FAVOURED AREAS
WILL PROBABLY SEEM SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.

THEN THE STORY REALLY BECOMES THE WARMING TREND FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AS THE RIDGE WILL BRING IN 1000-500MB
THICKNESS OF 573-575DM ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 850 TEMPS
WARM INTO THE 17-19C RANGE. THOSE TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT EVEN WITH THE HEAT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
QUITE DRY SO WE WONT EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HOT AND HUMID
TEMPS. THE MAX APPARENT TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
90-94 AND ON MONDAY AROUND 89-93.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EDT SATURDAY...CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500MB NORTH
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS IN THE MEAN
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE
UPR MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF . IN THE
INTERIM...MAINTENANCE OF S-SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HUMID AIR MASS
(MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS) WITH 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF +16C WILL
YIELD DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 85-90F RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CHANCES EXIST FOR A FEW AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND OVERALL LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC- SCALE CONVERGENCE. POPS
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MIXED CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COMPACT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND INTO VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS/SLK THROUGH 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND MOIST LOW-LVL CONDITIONS. A FEW BREAKS FURTHER EAST WILL YIELD
POTENTIAL LIFR FOG AT MPV 08-12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS NRN NY 08-12Z...AND THEN
AREAWIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING
AND UPPER LOW PASSAGE. GENERALLY CARRIED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT AFTER 13-14Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN TIMING AND
OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINITY AT INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS. WINDS LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 5-6 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT WEST TO NW.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT NEAR THE INTL BORDER. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY VFR ON BALANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

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