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SKIVT-L  August 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L August 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 16 Aug 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (222 lines)

Expires:201508162000;;100779
FPUS51 KBTV 160717
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015


VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
313 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 80.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80. 

$$


Expires:201508161100;;107951
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FOG       66  64  93 S6        30.11F VSB 1/8          
MONTPELIER     FOG       64  63  96 CALM      30.18R VSB 1/2          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       66  64  93 CALM      30.15S VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  63  93 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       61  60  97 CALM      30.16S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       63  63 100 CALM      30.14R VSB<1/4          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    61  57  88 SE6       30.15S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62  62 100 E3        30.14S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  64  97 CALM      30.10S FOG              
NEWPORT*       FOG       61  61  99 CALM      30.14S VSB<1/4          
BENNINGTON     FOG       62  61  96 CALM      30.15S VSB 1/4          
SUTTON*          N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A N6          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  68 100 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  64 100 SE6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;101418
FXUS61 KBTV 160753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HAZY, HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-WEEK
ONWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE FOG BANKS ARE SETTLING IN OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT ALONG WITH A FEW OF THE VALLEYS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE IR 11-3.9 SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE FOG
BANK IS QUITE THICK ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
THAT AS DAY BREAK OCCURS TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SO THE FOG WILL MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THEN THE STORY TURNS TO THE HEAT EXPECTED TODAY. AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INCREASE RAPIDLY AND
850 TEMPS WILL WARM TO 16-18C ACROSS THE REGION. THOSE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90F FOR MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMP OBSERVATION
OF 72F I DID TRY AND TONE BACK TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG MEAN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE MID
WEEK LEAVING DAILY FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTER OF THE TWO DAYS
WITH THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER, CHAMPLAIN
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IT WILL FEEL QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AND THEN AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL TO THE MID 60S EXPECT FOG TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US TURNS
OUR FLOW FROM ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING A INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT SUNDAY...MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALONG THE EAST 
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BEFORE TURNING MORE SEASONABLE/LESS HUMID FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS...WITH 
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY BOTH MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT A 
DIGGING...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN MS RIVER 
VALLEY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR +18C ON 
WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH 
SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 60S IN 
MOST LOCATIONS. INTENSIFYING P-GRADIENT LIKELY KEEPS SOUTH 
WINDS/MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY (AND SIMILIARLY 
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS). WHILE BEST QG FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND 
WEST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...SWD TRAILING 
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON AND/OR THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING BEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER 
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE 
OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHES PW VALUES TO NEAR 2" PER 00Z GFS ACROSS OUR 
REGION...SO SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO 
BE MONITORED WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. 
WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY ALSO YEILD SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WHICH 
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. HAVE INDICATED A 
PERIOD OF POPS NEAR 60% WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT 
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH DECREASING POPS 
ON FRIDAY MORNING, BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. SHOULD SEE 
DEWPOINTS DECREASING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH 
TEMPS BACK NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGE IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. 
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO BUILD AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 80-85F. SHOULD SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AREAS OF DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG AND LIFR
CEILINGS WILL IMPACT SLK/RUT/MPV THROUGH 12-13Z THIS MORNING. AT
MSS/PBG/BTV...OCCASIONAL 3-5SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
12Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING. ONCE FOG
DISSIPATES...VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR SLK/MPV. WINDS LIGHT...GENERALLY S-SW 5KTS
OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 08-10KTS AT MSS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW...AND SE AT PBG WITH LAKE
BREEZE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY VFR ON BALANCE FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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