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SKIVT-L  August 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L August 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 17 Aug 2015 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (215 lines)

Expires:201508172000;;147296
FPUS51 KBTV 170722
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015


VTZ006-172000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
319 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201508171100;;154282
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    66  63  90 CALM      30.06R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       59  58  96 CALM      30.13S VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       63  61  93 CALM      30.10R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     63  61  93 MISG      30.08R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       61  60  97 CALM      30.12S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      64  64 100 CALM      30.08S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     61  55  82 SE8       30.11S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       61  60  97 CALM      30.11R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      68  65  90 S3        30.04R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      61  60  99 SW5       30.09S FOG              
BENNINGTON     FOG       59  58  96 CALM      30.11S VSB 1/2          
SUTTON*          N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A NW16        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  70 100 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  68  94 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;147826
FXUS61 KBTV 170748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID WEEK ONWARD, WITH THE BEST THREAT OCCURRING
BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 2-3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
TEMPS BETWEEN 89-92 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
EXPECT HOT AND HUMID APPARENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE, CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE VALLEY
CHANNELING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...IN A REPEAT OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
EVENINGS EXPECT A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN WE WILL BE
A COUPLE OF DAYS REMOVED FROM PRECIP COMBINED WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW I DONT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH TODAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN THE NEAR SHORE AREAS AND THUS ANOTHER NIGHT FOR A/C
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TUESDAY THERE IS A RETURN OF MOISTURE AS AN BROAD UPPER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT FROM ZONAL
TO MORE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY THROUGH AIRMASS COLLISIONS AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING. THE HIRES CAM MODELS ARE PICKING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
BUT ARE GOING WITH HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM
A SYNOPTIC SINCE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECT THE
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING INSTEAD
OF PRODUCE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. BY THE TIME THE BEST DYNAMIC
SUPPORT COMES INTO THE AREA WE WILL LOSE THE SURFACE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO I KEPT THE
IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
WORDING FOR THE FORECAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A
TREND OF SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THIS IS WHAT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND THEN WE SEE A SHARPER
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE CHANCE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER TO LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT AS WELL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST...SO THREAT
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN FORCES
THIS TROUGH TO SLOW DOWN AND LIFT MORE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...THUS
AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. EVENTUALLY THINGS
DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL ALSO RESULT FROM THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KSLK AND KMPV WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH 13Z WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
INTO THE LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BUT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KMSS
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME ISO-
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR. IN ADDITION...SOME LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR POSSIBLE...MAINLY MPV/SLK.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS GREATER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI

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