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SKIVT-L  August 2015, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2015, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 24 Aug 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (197 lines)

Expires:201508242000;;485194
FPUS51 KBTV 240734
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


VTZ006-242000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
331 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 

$$


Expires:201508241100;;491682
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    66  62  87 S3        29.90R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    67  62  84 S6        29.99R                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      29.94S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  61  90 MISG      29.93S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    62  61  97 CALM      29.97S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    64  64 100 CALM      29.92R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    64  59  82 S5        29.94R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    67  65  93 CALM      29.94S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      65  63  93 SE3       29.89S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      61  61  98 CALM      29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      29.93S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W7          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  68  88 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  66  94 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;486613
FXUS61 KBTV 240809
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
409 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE AREA OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF IT...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOWLY MOVING...BUT
APPROACH FROM OUR WEST TODAY. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED AROUND THIS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. AT THE SAME
TIME...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH SURFACE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL HAVE A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH EVEN SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ROUNDS OUT BASE OF
UPPER LEVEL TROF ON TUE. THERE WILL BE SOME CAPE AROUND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUE AS WELL AND SOME WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH NOT LINING UP
PERFECTLY. FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL DROP OFF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATING. WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING OUT BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 307 AM EDT MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A
CONSISTENT PICTURE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. FROM A SYNOPTIC
PERSPECTIVE, THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THEREAFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS NORTHEAST AND IS GRADUALLY
REPLACED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING
TREND AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG
THIS MORNING'S OUTPUT WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD A BLEND OF 00Z
GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE AVERAGE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONAL LATE SUMMER NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN
DAILY MAXIMA WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WESTERN EXTENT OF MARINE STRATUS WILL
AFFECT MPV WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND 06-14Z, AND POSSIBLY AT KRUT.
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS
DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS MONDAY. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. CAN/T RULE OUT FOG
FORMATION AT SLK, BUT GOOD MIXING ALOFT GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE SO HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH
12Z. AFTER 20Z, WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION WITH A POTENTIAL BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING AREAL COVERAGE TO BE THAT GREAT INITIALLY
SO HAVE OMITTED REFERENCE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
SHOWERS WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LOW OVER CANADA IN THE
VICINITY.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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