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SKIVT-L  September 2015, Week 2

SKIVT-L September 2015, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 14 Sep 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (217 lines)

Expires:201509142000;;485496
FPUS51 KBTV 141026
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015


VTZ006-142000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
622 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE
OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS
AROUND 80.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

$$


Expires:201509141100;;485679
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 57 53 86 S10 29.77R
MORRISVILLE HVY RAIN 58 54 86 S7 29.78R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 58 55 90 MISG 29.73S
LYNDONVILLE* RAIN 55 54 96 SE3 29.77R
MIDDLEBURY* DRIZZLE 56 56 100 S5 29.80R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 54 41 62 CALM 29.81S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 52 52 100 CALM 29.80S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 56 56 97 S3 29.77R
NEWPORT* RAIN 55 54 96 CALM 29.77R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 56 51 84 SW3 29.83R
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 45 N/A N/A NW12 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 57 88 S14 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 55 94 SE8 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;485509
FXUS61 KBTV 141026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSMENTS TO
POPS/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN FROM MID MORNING ONWARD AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST. REST OF
FORECAST LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
POINT IN REGARD TO CLOUDS/WINDS/TEMPERATURES ETC. HAVE A GREAT
DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 312 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT AMPLE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
WILL PULL SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND THE MARITIMES
BY LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS/MTNS WHERE MODEST OROGPAPHICAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED
UNDER EVOLVING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.
ADDITIONAL QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH, THOUGH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED NORTHERN GREEN MTN COMMUNITIES. BY DAYS END LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT, WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS (LOWER TO MID 60S) ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN VT,
AND MILDEST FAR WEST (ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ETC) WHERE MANY LOCALES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FAR
NORTHEAST SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL ESSENTIALLY
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND BEYOND WITH
MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS AS TEMPERATURES TREND QUITE
WARM ONCE AGAIN. PATCHY MIST/FOG A GOOD BET TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SATURATION OF
THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN FAVORED LOCALES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S ON TUESDAY, THEN UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 45
TO 55 TONIGHT, AND 48 TO 58 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...SUNNY...DRY...AND VERY WARM WEATHER FOR
LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING THAT WILL BE DOMINANT MID-WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
SOME NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD EASILY REACH 80-85...AND LIKELY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER FOR
FRIDAY. LOWS GENERALLY 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME 40S IN THE
COOLER SPOTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT (CURRENTLY SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON GFS/ECMWF)...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE
WARM WITH HIGHS 75-80...ALTHOUGH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS 70-75. AS A
NOTE...CLIMO HIGHS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME THROUGH 18Z TODAY...WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY REMAINING
VFR...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME
LIGHT FOG/BR ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL TREND GENERALLY
DOWNWARD EARLY THIS MORNING INTO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT PBG.
SOME PERIODS OF IFR ALSO LIKELY AT MSS/SLK. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES 15-18Z WITH ANY SHOWERS COMING TO
AN END IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. MPV MAY LINGER FURTHER THROUGH
00Z WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-7 KNOTS OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY AND
INCREASE TO 8-14 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TAPER BACK OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR. VLIFR FOG LIKELY 05-13Z EACH MORNING AT KSLK/KMPV, POSSIBLY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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