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SKIVT-L  September 2015, Week 2

SKIVT-L September 2015, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 12 Sep 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201509122000;;385359
FPUS51 KBTV 120746
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015


VTZ006-122000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
343 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201509121100;;392554
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    56  53  90 CALM      29.84S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       52  51  97 CALM      29.91R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       52  50  93 CALM      29.89R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  50  93 MISG      29.87R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       49  48  97 CALM      29.90S VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      49  49 100 NW3       29.86R FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     52  32  46 SE3       29.87R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       52  52 100 CALM      29.88S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      55  54  96 CALM      29.84R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      49  48  99 SW5       29.89R FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     50  49  96 S3        29.86R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A E3          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  59  88 SE8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  55  94 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;385370
FXUS61 KBTV 120747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION TODAY 
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF RAIN BY DAY'S END, 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRIFT 
ACROSS THE REGION BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE PULLING AWAY FROM 
THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS MOST THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH COOLER 
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LATE SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN 
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATER NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FOREAST AREA TODAY AS A
FAIRLY SHARP AND DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES, TRUDGING
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR STEADIER RAINFALL BY DAY'S END,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIDED BY
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
FROM FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TREND
STEADIER OVER TIME WITH BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SLV/ADIRONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SOONER, TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WHERE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FOR THOSE PLANNING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND, TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
BETTER DAY OF THE TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIS MORNING'S HI-RESOLUTION AND
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT REMAIN IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW TO DRIFT VERY NEAR OR ATOP OUR AREA DURING THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD, AND PULLING SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES TO OUR REGION DURING THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER. HEAVIEST
PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NY,
THEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO VERMONT AS BUNDLES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE
ISOLATED THUNDER WITH HEAVIEST PRECPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY, AND ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING INTO VERMONT AS SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVOLVE WITH ADVECTION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY STRETCH AND
THE FACT THAT MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT BASE LATE SUMMER
FLOWS, NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE SOME MINOR
PONDING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CONSIDERABLY COOLER,
TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO HOLD NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S
THROUGH THE 50S AND LOCALLY NEAR 60 ALONG LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 244 AM EDT SATURDAY...A DRY...SUNNY...AND VERY WARM PERIOD
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS
LOOKING AT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. A SYSTEM EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT AND PERHAPS THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS 75-80
TUESDAY...78-83 WEDNESDAY...80-85 THURSDAY...AND 78-83 FRIDAY.
LOWS TO START THE WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE 40S/50S AND FINISH THE
WEEK IN THE 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG/BR EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN DEVELOPING RAIN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DECK OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. SOME FOG/BR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF DENSE LIFR FOG AT
MPV WHERE MORE RECENT RAIN HAS FALLEN AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THE LONGEST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
GRADUALLY LOWER LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING 15-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND 21Z-00Z ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT.
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
ALTHOUGH SOME REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MSS WITH NORTHEAST WIND
CHANNELING. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM 5-8 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK/BTV/PBG AND
SOUTHEAST 5-8 KNOTS AT RUT/MPV BY THIS AFTERNOON.

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWING
PASSING THROUGH.

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS OF
FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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