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SKIVT-L  October 2015, Week 1

SKIVT-L October 2015, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 7 Oct 2015 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (209 lines)

Expires:201510072000;;545799
FPUS51 KBTV 070714
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015


VTZ006-072000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
311 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 

$$


Expires:201510071100;;553454
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    53  48  83 S3        29.95R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  43  93 CALM      29.98S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    51  46  83 CALM      29.96R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  44  90 MISG      29.93S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    45  44  97 CALM      29.96R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      46  46 100 CALM      29.95F                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    46  45  93 CALM      29.97R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       42  42 100 CALM      29.97R VSB 1/2          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    53  50  90 CALM      29.93S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    47  46  95 CALM      29.94S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  47  93 CALM      29.97S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A NW17        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 S14         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  48  93 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;545542
FXUS61 KBTV 070710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THAN LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A COOL RAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 256 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VARYING AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND AT
DIFFERENT DECKS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DELIVERS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TO BRING A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT THEN
NORTHERN STREAM BRINGS A DEEPER, STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DECENT SLUG OF RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME FRESH WINDS ABOVE THE
DECK THAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S
WITH SCATTERED FROST.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKING IN
ADVANCE OF STRONGER/DEEPER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STAYING DRY. MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THU NGT...SYSTEM SLOWER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY THUS RAIN DOESN/T
MOVE INTO NORTHERN NY TO MAINLY AFTER 06Z AND INTO VT JUST BEFORE
12Z FRI. 

FRI...RATHER VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT
LOW-MID LEVEL JET ADVECTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH
INTO FA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2-3/4 INCH EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE A COOL RAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S...SOME UPPER
40S IN MOUNTAINS/CANADIAN BORDER AND CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES ON
SOUTH SIDE OF FRONT NEAR MA/VT BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL CENTER OVER NY/VT SATURDAY
AND SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS
MODEL RUNS WHICH WERE IN DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS
NOW COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH OFFERED A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL RIDGE KEEPING THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND THE BTV CWA DRY. AS
A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S, BUT
AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE EXITING
HIGH AND APPROACHING FRONT, WITH LITTLE QPF EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS
THE SYSTEM LACKS AND REAL DEEP MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARYING FROM
IFR TO VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE IFR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN LOW STRATUS. AFTER 13-14Z WE SHOULD
SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 18Z AT ALL SITES AS A WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
BEHIND FRONT. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY AT
KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
06Z THU - 06Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z THURSDAY MORNING.

06Z FRI - 06Z SAT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

06Z SAT - 00Z MON...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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