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SKIVT-L  October 2015, Week 1

SKIVT-L October 2015, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 5 Oct 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (212 lines)

Expires:201510052000;;452007
FPUS51 KBTV 050728
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015


VTZ006-052000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
325 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG AND FROST THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. PATCHY FROST. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 

$$


Expires:201510051100;;459553
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     38  33  82 SE3       30.28S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     34  31  88 CALM      30.31S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  30  88 MISG      30.30S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      31  31  99 CALM      30.30F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      36  36 100 CALM      30.28S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     37  30  75 SE7       30.29R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    31  30  96 CALM      30.32R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      37  33  86 SE5       30.27S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      32  32  99 SW6       30.29S WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    33  32  96 CALM      30.27S                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A N3          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  41  71 S15         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  37  87 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;452929
FXUS61 KBTV 050758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT MONDAY...

FROST ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL VT UNTIL 8 A.M. ANY FROST
AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO GO AWAY BETWEEN 8 AND 9 A.M.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEG C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT MONDAY...

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FAIR WEATHER. A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND COULD
BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AS MANY PLACES DIP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BUT A BIT MILDER NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

925 TEMPS RISE TO 9 THEN 10 DEG C ON TUE/WED WHICH SHOULD BUMP
TEMPS JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 60 TO 65.

COLD FRONT ON WED SHOULD YIELD MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY-
DRIVEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AS COLD ADVECTION GRADUALLY KICKS IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
MOST PLACES WILL SEE NOTHING OR MAYBE A SPRINKLE SO PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL. WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE
RATE EXPECT DEEPER MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN SO GUST TO 20 TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE BY WED AFT/EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY BEHIND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY EVENING THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT A WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A BIT LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
COMPARED TO THE 12Z DATA FROM YESTERDAY. TIMING FROM THE GFS
OFFERS A STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH MORE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE EURO WASHES
THE FRONT OUT ALMOST AND BRINGS A SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST I ANTICIPATE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
THUS THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT IS A BIT OVERDONE FROM A PRECIP
PERSPECTIVE BUT I THINK THE TIMING IS PRETTY GOOD. THE FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL SUITE WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT TOWARDS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION FOR TIMING. THAT LEADS TO A QUIET DAY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT DROPPING OUT OF QUEBEC WITH THE
PARENT LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. THAT SECOND FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIALLY BRING
WIDESPREAD COLD TEMPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS WITH MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN ELEVATIONS
LESS THAN 1500 FEET AND NEAR 30 IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF BOTH THE
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LIFR RADIATION FOG
AT MPV JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. GENERALLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TONIGHT SO THE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLIER TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. ANTICIPATE A IFR FOG BANK TO
DEVELOP AROUND 08-09Z OVERNIGHT AT MPV. VFR TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. ITS POSSIBLE
SOME OF THE UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD COVER COULD MAKE IT INTO MSS
HOWEVER FOR THIS ISSUANCE I CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MVFR
CEILINGS. WINDS VARIABLE AND UNDER 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK EACH DAY.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...BKN/OVC VFR/MFVR WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ006-008-012-
     016>019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL

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