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SKIVT-L  October 2015, Week 1

SKIVT-L October 2015, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 6 Oct 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (198 lines)

Expires:201510062000;;499744
FPUS51 KBTV 060729
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015


VTZ006-062000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. 

$$


Expires:201510061100;;507489
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    48  43  82 CALM      30.08S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    43  41  93 CALM      30.11                   
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  44  90 CALM      30.09S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  38  89 MISG      30.07S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    42  41  97 CALM      30.08S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    45  45 100 CALM      30.07F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    43  39  87 SE5       30.07F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    41  39  93 CALM      30.08S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    48  46  93 CALM      30.07F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    46  45  95 CALM      30.08S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    42  41  96 CALM      30.06F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  48  82 NW6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  48  87 E2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;499686
FXUS61 KBTV 060728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING DRY WITH
THE EXECPETION OF A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SPRINKLES. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EDT TUESDAY...STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED
MOSTLY CLOUSY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
COMBINATION OF INVERSION SLOWLY BREAKING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
SHOULD BRING ABOUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN YESTERDAY AND IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
THEN MAX TEMEPRATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY DOMINATED NORTHERN JET ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER...STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
APROACHING SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT MAY BE COLDER IN EASTERN VT AND WILL NEED 
TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS.

ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLOUDS ASOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT 
WITH PERHAPS A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES VERY 
SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A DEG/TWO COOLER IN NORTHERN NY AFTER 
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 

WED NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND NEW 
COLDER AIRMASS WHICH WILL ALOOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED FROST BUT CLOSE TO 
SEASONABLE.

THU...SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKING IN ADVANCE 
OF STRONGER/DEEPER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ABOUT INCREASING CLOUDS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STAYING DRY. MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY 
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE A
FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM COMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WHERE A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE OWING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS AVERAGING AROUND 1.25". EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR A
WIDESPREAD 0.50-1" WITH SOME HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPED/DOWNSLOPED AREAS DUE TO A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF
40KTS AT 850MB COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION MAKING 
FOR A NICE COOL/CRISP FALL WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, HIGHS IN THE 50S, LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. FOR 
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL SEEING SOME 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO SOME ADDITIONAL 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH, MAINLY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF 
OFFERS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE THE GFS 
HAS A WEAK LOW SHIFTING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGGING A WEAK 
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BTV CWA. THIS FAR OUT, WILL PLAY SOME SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS AND SEE HOW GUIDANCE FAIRS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE 
PENCILING ANYTHING IN FOR CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN-OVC VFR DECK JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
AFTER 12Z. THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL GENERALLY BY ABOVE 12,000 FEET
AND FEW-SCT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 5KTS FROM THE
SW AT KMSS/KSLK, NW AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV AND NE AT KPBG AFTER 15-16Z,
GOING CALM AGAIN AFTER 23-00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 06Z FRI...MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z EACH DAY.
06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN.
12Z SAT - 00Z SUN...MVFR TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 4
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July 2006, Week 3
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 1
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