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SKIVT-L  October 2015, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2015, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 12 Oct 2015 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201510122000;;776510
FPUS51 KBTV 120720
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015


VTZ006-122000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
317 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

$$


Expires:201510121100;;784026
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     57  43  59 S8        29.76R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     41  39  93 CALM      29.82R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     43  40  89 CALM      29.79R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  39  93 MISG      29.80R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       40  40  98 CALM      29.82R VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      55  45  69 S6        29.79S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     46  41  81 SE8       29.81S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    39  38  96 CALM      29.83S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      55  45  67 S7        29.73R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      45  41  88 S3        29.78R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     39  38  96 CALM      29.83S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  50  82 S23         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;777281
FXUS61 KBTV 120752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH A GLORIOUS INDIAN SUMMER DAY TODAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT MONDAY...IF YOU'RE LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE THE
COLUMBUS HOLIDAY OFF WE SURE HAVE A FANTASTIC INDIAN SUMMER DAY ON
TAP FOR YOU! EARLY MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. INCREASING
P-GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING
TREND FROM YESTERDAY AND BOLSTER IT FURTHER UPWARD WITH MEAN
925-850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA-WIDE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
WE'LL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE WINDS
MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ENTERS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
EVENING AND MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY. NOT
MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. WHILE
I'LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LIKELY POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, STILL ONLY THINKING WE'LL SEE SHOWERS FOR ABOUT A 1-3HR
PERIOD AT ANY ONE LOCATION WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT,
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BUMP BACK DOWN TO SUNDAY'S
VALUES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL PIECES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOWING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WHICH MAY
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BRINGS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S, AND HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL MEAN
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHT OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 14Z THROUGH 23Z MONDAY...AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVE
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT 06Z
MONDAY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 312 AM EDT MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WELL UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED FROM WEST OF APPLETREE
POINT NORTHWEST TO CUMBERLAND BAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
MARINE...LAHIFF

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