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SKIVT-L  November 2015, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2015, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 9 Nov 2015 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (217 lines)

Expires:201511092100;;093129
FPUS51 KBTV 091143
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015


VTZ006-092100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
639 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.VETERANS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201511091200;;092626
ASUS41 KBTV 091130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     32  26  78 CALM      30.38R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     27  24  89 CALM      30.39                   
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     27  22  81 CALM      30.38R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     24  20  84 MISG      30.37S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      23  22  95 CALM      30.37S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      37  32  82 SE5       30.38S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     26  24  92 CALM      30.40S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      38  32  78 S6        30.36R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      35  29  79 S3        30.35R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     27  24  89 CALM      30.39F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A W32         N/A  WCI  12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  37  81 S18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  36  87 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;093107
FXUS61 KBTV 091140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF
ADIRONDACKS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY FEW OROGRAPHIC
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S TO
WARM QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND RIDGING ALOFT
TODAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EST MONDAY...RIDGING ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S.

CLOUDS BEING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING, AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS IT INTERACTS WITH CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF
THE DELMARVA COAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF
COASTAL LOW, WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NEW YORK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM. AS OF RIGHT NOW, GFS AND ECMWF ARE LACKING IN 850MB QG
FRONTOGENETIC COUPLET UNTIL SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK WHICH COMBINED WITH QUICKLY WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WITH PWATS LESS THAN ONE INCH WOULD RESULT IN MINOR
LIGHT RAIN AT BEST. THEREFORE KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHT RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
CLOUDS SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH
MAXES IN THE M40S TO UPPER 50S. WITH CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL RAIN
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TUESDAY, REACHING THE 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLEARING. A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY THEN LIFT FURTHER NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC. THERE ARE INDICATIONS HOWEVER THAT A SECOND LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND THEN
TRACK UP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND AN
INCH LATER THURSDAY...DURING PERIOD OF BEST FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE
CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY TO
ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT LOWER
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN 40S NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EARLY...THEN FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING
MUCH LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AT SLK TILL ABOUT 14Z WITH
OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z THURSDAY-12Z THURSDAY...VFR.
12Z THURSDAY-00Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF

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