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SKIVT-L  November 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 15 Nov 2015 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201511152100;;374115
FPUS51 KBTV 151112
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
609 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015


VTZ006-152100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
609 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201511151200;;374375
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    35  26  69 S6        30.14F WCI  30          
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    30  25  81 SW3       30.14F                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    31  25  78 CALM      30.12F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  23  72 MISG      30.11S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      29  23  78 CALM      30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    28  24  86 SE3       30.15F                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    27  21  80 CALM      30.17S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      32  24  72 VRB3      30.16S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      33  29  85 SE5       30.11F WCI  28          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      30  26  83 E3        30.10S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    28  25  88 CALM      30.19S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  34  81 S22         N/A  WCI  29          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  30  86 S12         N/A  WCI  25          

$$


Expires:No;;374381
FXUS61 KBTV 151131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTH COUNTRY'S WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK, RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY RAIN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 631 AM EST SUNDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE, OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR TODAY
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WE'RE FINALLY SEEING CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS PREVIOUSLY LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST VERMONT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BUT LATEST UPSTREAM
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND +3C, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, EXCEPT MID 30S ON THE HIGHER SUMMITS.

FOR TONIGHT, A SHALLOW BUT MOISTURE-STARVED BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN
GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM EST SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SHALLOW COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS (10-15 MPH) AND LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME CONTINUED INDICATION IN 00Z
NAM/GFS/BTV4KM WRF THAT A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NERN VT.
HAVE INDICATED 15-30 POPS DURING EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY FOR
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION AND ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...AND LOCALLY 46-49F IN THE VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES.

SFC ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER. SHOULD SEE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 20-26F IN MOST
SECTIONS...WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WILL SEE LOCALIZED MIN
TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY. SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AS WELL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY GENERALLY 45-50F. POPS NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 316 AM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO BE ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SRN
QUEBEC. LOWS WILL BE WIDELY VARYING TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF VERMONT. SHOULD SEE LOWS 25-30F IN
MOST SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOCALLY 32-35F IN SWRN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH ONSET OF S-SW RETURN FLOW. THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN
VT.

LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND DEEP LOW (980MB) ACROSS THE UPR MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN. ALSO LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50-55F RANGE
WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH THE STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW. NO PCPN
EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID TO
UPR LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN. 

MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHEARING NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE PREVAILING
RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A REMNANT
OCCULDED BNDRY IN SWLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO OUR REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY SHOWN ON
TIMING BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. AHEAD OF THE OCCULDED
FRONT...LOOKING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...GENERALLY 20-
30 MPH WITH SOME POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITH
CHANNELED SLY FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FRONTAL RAINBAND APPROACHES ACROSS NRN NY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MAIN PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SHOWS TIMING SHIFTED ABOUT 6 HOURS
LATER (THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT). PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
RAINFALL AMTS 0.30-0.60" AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

BEHIND THE OCCULDED FRONT...PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION GIVEN
FLOW REGIME...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPR 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS STILL IN THE UPR 40S TO NEAR 50F ON FRIDAY. MEAN MID-UPR LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES THRU
SATURDAY...SO SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TENDENCY FOR MEAN RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEAR/ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO STREAM SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 16-20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. AFTER
04Z, A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC WILL
BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST VERMONT, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KMPV. THINKING RIGHT NOW CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME MVFR WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ON A FEW UPSTREAM OBS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON - 00Z THU...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLY AT KMPV 12-18Z MONDAY.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
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August 2010, Week 3
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
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January 2010, Week 4
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December 2009, Week 5
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 4
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August 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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