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SKIVT-L  November 2015, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2015, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 28 Nov 2015 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (205 lines)

Expires:201511282100;;989591
FPUS51 KBTV 281124
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015


VTZ006-282100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$


Expires:201511281200;;989716
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 33 26 75 N10 30.28S WCI 25
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 32 31 96 VRB6 30.26R FOG WCI 26
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 33 29 85 N9 30.25S WCI 25
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 29 82 MISG 30.21R
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 31 30 95 NW7 30.22F WCI 24
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 32 32 100 N8 30.25R WCI 25
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 34 30 86 N12 30.24R WCI 25
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 42 39 89 CALM 30.18S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 31 28 88 N12 30.30S WCI 21
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 30 28 94 N10 30.25S FOG WCI 21
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 40 39 97 W5 30.18R
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 39 N/A N/A MISG N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 34 30 86 N18 N/A WCI 23
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 36 32 87 N20 N/A WCI 25

$$


Expires:No;;989694
FXUS61 KBTV 281130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS, WHICH MAY TRANSITION TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
BEFORE ENDING. BEHIND THIS FRONT A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STILL PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING IN KEEPING THE WEATHER
QUIET FOR THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 335 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
TRAVERSED THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL RH PROFILES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT AS EVIDENCED BY THE DRY AIR IN THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITES BUT THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS HOLDING ON. EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING BEFORE ERODING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES OUT DUE TO
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
QUIET TODAY AND THE INVERSION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE INVERSION TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER IN THE SUMMITS THAN AT THE SURFACE WHERE TEMPS THIS EVENING
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RADIATIVE PROCESSES WILL FOR TEMPS
THIS EVENING TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH TEENS IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. DURING THE DAY TODAY WE WILL BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES AS THEY CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING. IN AREAS
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ANY STANDING WATER FROM THE RAINFALL
COULD TURN ICY ON ROADWAYS OR SIDEWALKS. BY MID MORNING TEMPS
SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH THIS WILL BE NO LONGER A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 AM EST SATURDAY... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BY THAT TIME EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM
ENOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONTINUED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES PROVIDES DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT CROSSED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS BEHIND
THE FRONT HAVE STAYED LOW AS LOW LEVEL RH HAS HELD ON EVEN AS THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASE. IN BOTH MPV AND SLK
SOME LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND A
NARROW LAYER OF SATURATED AIR HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PROTECTED
VALLEYS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DIURNAL
HEATING AND DECREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ERODES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY TO BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL/MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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