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SKIVT-L  December 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 18 Dec 2015 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (225 lines)

Expires:201512182100;;942987
FPUS51 KBTV 181111
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015


VTZ006-182100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
608 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 50. 

$$


Expires:201512181200;;943568
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    42  31  64 NE3       29.75R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  31  76 NW7       29.75R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    40  38  93 NW3       29.73R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  34  73 MISG      29.69R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    38  33  83 W7        29.71R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  38  86 CALM      29.74R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    41  32  70 N9        29.73R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      42  41  96 CALM      29.69R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    38  32  78 CALM      29.75R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  33  85 W5        29.72R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    41  37  86 SW8       29.74R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A NW29        N/A  WCI  11          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  32  65 N12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  34  65 N8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;943696
FXUS61 KBTV 181132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY, RELATIVELY QUIET BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END
THE WORK WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL, BUT A BRIEF
COOL DOWN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST FRIDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
DONE OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GREENS.
IN GENERAL, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN, BUT
ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE REGION
PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD
SIDE OF NORMAL. MORNING TEMPS IN IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY, MAYBE RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.

IT'LL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHERE
FALLING 850MB TEMPS AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP A
ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE
FLOW REMAINING WESTERLY, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO REALLY
REACH UP INTO OUR AREA, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK, ALONG WITH FAR WESTERN ESSEX
COUNTY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EST FRIDAY...COLDEST STRETCH OF WEATHER IN NEARLY A
MONTH TO THEN BRIEFLY AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODESTLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENSURE CONTINUED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ENSURE THAT
THE MAJORITY OF LAKE EFFECT SHSN/SQUALLS WILL SET UP TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE TUG HILL. SOME BLEED OVER POSSIBLE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS GIVEN BRISK FLOW ALOFT. BEST SHOT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHSN ACTIVITY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING WITH BRIEF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A
REINFORCING SFC TROUGH PASSAGE. DURING THIS PERIOD SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE I'VE ADVERTISED MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3
INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWING
SEASONABLY COOL READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH PULLS STEADILY EAST WITH
LINGERING SHSN/FLURRIES ENDING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES RETURN ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ABATE OVER TIME AND TREND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE MID 20S WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOWARD
DAY'S END - UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EST FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY, AT LEAST FOR WINTER
ENTHUSIASTS THAT IS, OUR COOLDOWN THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL NOT
LAST LONG. THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT ALONG WITH
ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW A PRONOUNCED RE-LOADING OF
THE MEAN WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WITH CORRESPONDING AND ROBUST
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEP SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGING/WARMTH UNDER
PRONOUNCED AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MORNING'S
GFS/EURO CAMPS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON POSITION OF THE MEAN POLAR FRONT
AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY CAD EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY SHOWING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH INITIAL WEAKENING SYSTEM, THEN
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MOISTURE OF GOMEX ORIGIN. LYING WITHIN THE
DEEP BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT A
VERY CLOUDY AND MILD WEEK IS EXPECTED. INDEED, TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES WILL MOST CERTAINLY TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
AS HIGHS CLIMB SOLIDLY IN THE 40S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND
LIKELY 50S BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR
DECEMBER 2015 AS ONE OF THE WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD FOR MANY
NORTH COUNTRY LOCALES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED TO VFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR STILL AT KMPV/KRUT FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM 14Z
ONWARD IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH CLOUD BASES RIGHT AROUND MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVELS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY 5-10KT FROM
THE NORTHWEST, TRENDING WEST TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT - 12Z SUN: GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SHSN. IFR
POSSIBLE AT SLK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS. 
12Z SUN - 12Z MON: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: MVFR TRENDING TO VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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