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SKIVT-L  December 2015, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2015, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 20 Dec 2015 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (234 lines)

Expires:201512202100;;033687
FPUS51 KBTV 201115
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015


VTZ006-202100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
612 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 40. 

$$


Expires:201512201200;;034061
ASUS41 KBTV 201130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      24  14  65 N7        30.34R WCI  16          
MONTPELIER     MIX PCPN  21  13  71 NW21G29   30.29R WCI   5          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    24  12  60 NE5       30.31R WCI  18          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     23  11  60 MISG      30.25R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    19   9  65 W10G18    30.26R WCI   8          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      26  17  66 N12G21    30.32R WCI  16          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    25  18  74 N8        30.30R WCI  16          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    31  14  49 NW9G22    30.28R WCI  23          
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    22  11  63 W6        30.35R WCI  15          
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    18   8  64 W5        30.29R WCI  11          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    29  21  72 W8        30.30R WCI  21          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      9 N/A N/A SW69G106    N/A  WCI -22          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     28  19  69 N21         N/A  WCI  15          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  21  69 N10         N/A  WCI  21          

$$


Expires:No;;034284
FXUS61 KBTV 201135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY,
MORNING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S, BUT THIS BRIEF COOL-DOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED, AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEYOND TODAY, CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST MOST DAYS
THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST SUNDAY...DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT HAS FINALLY
BEGUN TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS ABATING AND A TREND TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
WARMER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS, WITH ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES EARLY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ONSET OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT'LL BE A TRICKY MIN TEMP FORECAST,
WITH LOWS LIKELY BEING REACHED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S,
EXCEPT TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WITH SUMMITS TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EST SUNDAY...WELL ADVERTISED AND DAMPENING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH AMPLE CLOUDS AND A BROAD INCREASE IN SHOWER
THREAT. THERMAL PROFILES WARM CONSIDERABLY UNDER DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT P-TYPE CONCERNS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
AN ALL LIQUID EVENT EXPECTED. GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS AND SYSTEM
BAROCLINICITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVER TIME, QPF WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, CONFINED
MAINLY TO NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND TO
INCREASED SOUTH FLOW, TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY
AND REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL (30S) ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AS A REINVIGORATED
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FOSTERS BUILDING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING WARM
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
THIS FLOW WILL TAP DEEPER MOISTURE OF GOMEX ORIGIN WHICH WILL RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
SLIGHT DISPARITY IN MEAN QPF PLACEMENT AMONG THIS MORNING'S MODEL
OUTPUT, SO A BLENDED APPROACH SIMILAR TO WPC PROGS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT SHOWING HIGHEST SHOWER THREAT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE AMPLE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT INSOLATIONAL PROCESSES, VERY STRONG WARM THERMAL
ADVECTION IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND LOCALLY TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION THEN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND BEGINS TO
EXIT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES)
ALONG WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN MID LEVELS AND STRONG MID TO
UPPER JET ENERGY ALOFT. THIS ALL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, AND MAY FALL STEADILY OVERNIGHT.
LOWS HOLDING VERY MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SO PCPN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME PARTIAL SUN POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE. THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUED EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HERE AND ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THAT MATTER. INDEED, THIS MORNING'S GEFS MEAN 2M TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES SOAR INTO THE +20-22C RANGE -REALLY UNUSUAL STUFF
CONSIDERING THESE VALUES ARE FROM AN ENSEMBLE. SOUNDING PROFILES
DO SHOW LIMITED MIXING AND GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR MEAN 850 T
PROFILES REALLY AREN'T A GOOD INDICATOR OF POTENTIAL MAX READINGS.
THAT SAID, STILL FEEL READINGS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S AREA WIDE.

THEREAFTER, UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE
AREA, THOUGH - AS YOU MAY HAVE GUESSED WEAKEN AND DAMPEN OUT WITH
TIME IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL DIGGING ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
SOME CONTINUED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT BY AND LARGE A DRIER STRETCH OF
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL FROM THURSDAY'S NEAR RECORD WARMTH, BUT STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMS AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 40S ON BOTH
CHRISTMAS DAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR AT KMPV/KSLK
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELIITE TRENDS INDICATE DRY
AIR ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO WIN OVER, SCATTERING OUT LOW CLOUDS, BUT
WITH THE FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING, A
SCT-BKN VFR CAN BE EXPECTED. BY THE AFTERNOON, LOW CLOUDS ERODE
FURTHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE MID-CLOUDS SHIFT
IN FROM THE WEST, GENERALLY ABOVE 10FKT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z, AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 
12Z MON - 18Z MON: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 
18Z MON - 00Z WED: VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. 
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. 
18Z WED - 00Z FRI: VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LLWS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 4
July 2005, Week 3
July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
May 2005, Week 5
May 2005, Week 4
May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
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February 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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December 2002, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 4
October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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July 2001, Week 3
July 2001, Week 2
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May 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 3
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March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
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May 2000, Week 3
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May 2000, Week 1
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April 2000, Week 4
April 2000, Week 3
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April 2000, Week 1
March 2000, Week 5
March 2000, Week 4
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