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SKIVT-L  January 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L January 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 14 Jan 2016 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (211 lines)

Expires:201601142100;;249743
FPUS51 KBTV 141133
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016


VTZ006-142100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
631 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 11. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SLEET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
80 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 12 TO
24. 
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 10 TO 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 

$$


Expires:201601141200;;249505
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      14   5  67 S9        29.79F WCI   2          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     3  -1  83 CALM      29.78R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY     6   0  76 CALM      29.78S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      2  -3  80 MISG      29.78S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY     1  -3  83 CALM      29.76R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      16   8  70 CALM      29.80S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    16  10  79 SW5       29.79S WCI   9          
SPRINGFIELD    FLURRIES  11   7  84 CALM      29.83R                  
HIGHGATE*      FLURRIES   4   1  84 CALM      29.79S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       1  -3  85 SW6       29.76R WCI -11          
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  16   8  71 VRB6      29.80S WCI   7          
SUTTON*          N/A      1 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A NW26        N/A  WCI -23          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     19  16  86 SW17        N/A  WCI   4          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     16  12  86 SE13        N/A  WCI   2          

$$


Expires:No;;244987
FXUS61 KBTV 140917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO LAKE EFFECT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES, BUT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE BENIGN
WEATHER TODAY WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM ONTARIO AND BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT BAND PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SOUTH AS WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY
MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE BROAD
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO SEE SOME 500MB RIDGING AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W)...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS MODEL. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
THIS DEEPENING OCEAN STORM. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND WEAKEN BY
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC. EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SLOWER THAN THE GFS
MODEL IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM. EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION...AS OCEAN STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR/IFR VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK AND MSS EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND TO MEANDER NORTHWARD AROUND MID MORNING. THE BAND LOOKS TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE AFTERNOON...TRENDING VFR HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER...BORDERING
MVFR AROUND MID-DAY AS THE WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND ATTEMPTS TO BRING VCSH TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MPV
AND RUT EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND MIDDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS WILL SHIFT WSW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE AROUND 20-22Z WITH DRYING TREND.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY
BRINGING AN END TO SNOW SHOWER THREAT AND A MODEST IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD VFR CEILINGS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 06Z SAT...MAINLY
VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. 12Z SUN - 00Z TUE...MIX OF VFR/MVFR. CHANCE
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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