Expires:201602102100;;525274
FPUS51 KBTV 101145
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016


VTZ006-102100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
643 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO
5 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 3 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 18. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 BELOW TO
15 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW
ZERO.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201602101200;;524688
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 28 22 78 S12 29.50F WCI 18
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 20 17 88 CALM 29.52R
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 24 19 81 CALM 29.51R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 21 16 81 MISG 29.50R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 20 18 93 SE3 29.50R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 25 19 80 CALM 29.52R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 19 16 88 CALM 29.55R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 20 18 92 CALM 29.53R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 21 18 88 S5 29.48S WCI 15
BENNINGTON LGT SNOW 26 23 88 CALM 29.51S FOG
SUTTON* N/A 18 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 18 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 21 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 18 N/A N/A NW23 N/A WCI 0

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 30 28 93 SW15 N/A WCI 19
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 28 27 93 S7 N/A WCI 21

$$


Expires:No;;525342
FXUS61 KBTV 101147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 647 AM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT SO EXPECTING A STEADY BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR MIN TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
COULD SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME
CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE
FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE
THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT
-30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR
REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE
COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX
SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS
UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR
REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS...HAVE PUT IN VICINITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS VCSH AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING OF SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCE FOR
STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
FROM 19Z-21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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