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SKIVT-L  February 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L February 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 8 Feb 2016 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (224 lines)

Expires:201602082100;;429714
FPUS51 KBTV 081112
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
610 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016


VTZ006-082100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
610 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOWS AROUND 19. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND ZERO.
LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 

$$


Expires:201602081200;;430163
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    18   9  68 N3        29.95F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      19  17  92 CALM      29.93F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      21  11  65 N8        29.95F WCI  11          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     21  15  78 MISG      29.93F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      20   7  56 N14G22    29.92F WCI   7          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      28  10  47 SE8       29.87F WCI  20          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      26   9  48 E7        29.91F WCI  18          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      16  11  81 CALM      29.96F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      12   5  73 N9        29.96F WCI   0          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      30  17  58 NE7       29.82F WCI  23          
SUTTON*          N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     14 N/A N/A SW16        N/A  WCI  -2          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  18  86 N12         N/A  WCI   9          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     23  19  86 NW13        N/A  WCI  11          

$$


Expires:No;;430614
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN'T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
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December 2009, Week 3
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December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
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August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 1
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