Expires:201602262100;;276489
FPUS51 KBTV 261121
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016


VTZ006-262100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
619 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 3 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201602261200;;276660
ASUS41 KBTV 261130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    20   8  60 NW7       29.62R WCI  11          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  17  12  80 N9        29.56R WCI   6          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     21  10  62 MISG      29.50R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  17  11  77 W12G23    29.50R WCI   4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    23  15  72 N6        29.60R WCI  15          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    21  10  63 W14G20    29.58R WCI   8          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    27  13  55 MISG      29.53R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    14   7  74 CALM      29.65R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  15   8  73 W16G24    29.52R WCI  -1          
BENNINGTON     FLURRIES  24  15  68 W10G20    29.62R WCI  14          
SUTTON*          N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  12  68 NW29        N/A  WCI   3          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25  12  58 W15         N/A  WCI  12          

$$


Expires:No;;276981
FXUS61 KBTV 261142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN, THICK CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED MID-
WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 637 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREENS, BUT THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -12C SOUTH TO -17C NORTH SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTH- CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT.
CHAMPLAIN AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE THE WARM
SPOTS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S, OWING A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS TO MORE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, WITH MOST SPOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25MPH
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER RATHER THAN EARLY SPRING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO +10F.

FOR TONIGHT, WINDS CALM DOWN AND SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL INITIALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BUILDING IN TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE, BUT A
FEW COLDER HOLLOWS IN THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM COULD SEE
SOME SUB-ZERO VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EST FRIDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD WEATHERWISE BY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
SEASONABLE LATE WINTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. THERE
WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE
JAMES BAY/CENTRAL QUEBEC REGION DRIVES THE POLAR FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER
WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE LOOK PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT AND A DECENTLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR 3 KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER STRETCH REMAINS IN
STORE DURING NEXT WEEK WITH TWO DISCRETE SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR
AREA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR FRONT WHICH
WILL TEND TO WAFFLE NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN TANDEM WITH THE
PASSAGE OF EACH WAVE OF ENERGY, MAKING FOR A FAIRLY CHALLENGING
P-TYPE/TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE, WHICH MAY INCLUDE SOME MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS AS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTERACT WITH SHALLOW NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW
TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE NEAR-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SLEET AND/OR ICING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE LESS AND
GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS IF IT DOES OCCUR. AS SYSTEM
PASSES DURING MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH WITH DECENT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER THREAT IN THE MORNING LESSENING IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO QUITE MILD LEVELS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH BRIEF COOLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHALLOW COLD AIR AND AFOREMENTIONED POLAR FRONT
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FRONT WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO MORE ROBUST ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAKE ON A VERY SIMILAR PATH TO OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM, THOUGH WITH
ORIGINS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IT WON'T HAVE
QUITE THE DEGREE OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THAT ITS COUNTERPART DID.
THAT SAID, I'M STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO
LIKELY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT, AND A HIGHER
THREAT OF MORE PERSISTENT MIXED PCPN/ICING ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHERE PRESSURE-DRIVEN CHANNELING WILL LOCK IN COLDER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE QUITE THE CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CONTINUED SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR FRONT IN THIS MORNING'S GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT.
MILDEST READINGS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EAST WHERE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH 50F ONCE AGAIN PER
BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL SWEEP BACK THROUGH THE
REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK/KMPV ENDING
THIS MORNING AND A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS VFR AT ALL SITES BY 19Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GUSTY AT 15-15KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BUT ABATE IN THE EVENING, GOING LIGHT <5KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 
12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV AND MSS.

00Z TUE - 00Z WED...GENERALLY VFR. SCT MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html