Expires:201602272100;;319667
FPUS51 KBTV 271113
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
610 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016


VTZ006-272100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
610 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING
TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 

$$


Expires:201602271200;;320165
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      10   2  69 SE5       30.03F WCI   2          
MONTPELIER     FAIR       4   1  88 CALM      30.00F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       5   0  79 CALM      30.01F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      7   2  80 MISG      30.01S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       2  -1  86 CALM      29.98S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      15   6  68 S3        30.02S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      10   9  92 CALM      30.01F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      15   6  67 CALM      30.03S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       6   2  83 CALM      30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR       3  -1  81 CALM      29.97F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      13   9  84 CALM      30.03S                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21  12  68 S16         N/A  WCI   7          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     18  12  79 S8          N/A  WCI   7          

$$


Expires:No;;320425
FXUS61 KBTV 271137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY UNSETTLED AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS PRODUCING
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING NORTH OF
THE BORDER TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA,
ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. POTENTIALLY MORE
NOTABLE WILL BE TWO STRONGER SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MORE STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 637 AM EST SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH
MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO,
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING SKIRTS
ALONG THE INTL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING AN INCREASE OF
LOW/MID CLOUDS BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT WE'LL
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, AS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MEAN 925MB WINDS
INCREASE MARKEDLY UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND TO SOME EXTENT IN
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO AROUND 45KTS, WITH A MODEST
50-60KT 850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA AS WELL. SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FROM HAMMOND TO MASSENA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS,
PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THOUGH DESPITE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THE BEST LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO FEEL
PRECIP WILL BE MORE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE VALLEY WITH
ALL SNOW ABOVE ABOVE ABOUT 1,000 FEET. ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH, GENERALLY IN THE DUSTING TO 2 INCH RANGE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY, WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT DURING THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME SHOWING FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR PCPN WILL
OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK, AND I'VE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES,
ESPECIALLY THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
ACCORDINGLY. AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND CORRESPONDING MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
TRICKY AS THE POLAR FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHALLOW COLDER AIR WILL
ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEYS DURING
SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BODILY LIFTING NORTH OF
THE INTL BORDER AS SFC LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. GAVE A GOOD DEAL
OF CREDENCE TO THIS MORNING'S BTV 4KM WRF HOURLY TEMPERATURE
OUTPUT, INCORPORATING IT'S IDEA IN WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS TO
SUGGEST SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS IN THESE AREAS INITIALLY BEFORE
READINGS RISE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S FAR NORTH, AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND FLOW TRENDS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT READINGS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. GIVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES IT MAY PROVE A TAD PROBLEMATIC IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ST LAWRENCE WHERE SOME LIGHT
ICING CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE ON SUNDAY/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH, EITHER DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, OR THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE SIMPLY TO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. INDEED, THE CHAMPLAIN AND LOWER CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ENHANCED SHADOWING DURING
THIS EVENT AS AVERAGED MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KTS
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED, NOT ATYPICAL DURING A SETUP
SUCH AS THIS.

BY MONDAY THE CLIPPER ENERGY WILL PULL QUICKLY EAST WITH THE
POLAR FRONT SWEEPING BACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WITH COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/SLV (LOWER TO MID 30S), AND MILDEST FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EAST (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH
JUST A FEW/SCT FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO ADDITIONAL ENERGY EMERGING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION BY
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY IN
THE EUROPEAN/EPS OUTPUT WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY TOWARD ITS SOLUTION
SUGGESTING A MEAN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY STORM TRACK. AS A SIDE NOTE,
THIS IS THE PREFERRED TRACK OF THE NAVGEM/WPC GUIDANCE AS WELL.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE INCONSISTENCIES IN TRACK/INTENSITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AN ISSUE THAT'S UNFORTUNATELY BEEN MORE
COMMONPLACE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MUCH OF THIS WINTER WHICH LOWERS
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION, AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. GIVEN
THIS THINKING, HAVE MAINTAINED OVERALL PERSISTENCE IN THIS PERIOD
SUGGESTING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PCPN WITH THE IDEA OF A SNOW TO
MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO FROM THE DACKS EAST AS FLOW TRENDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY, AND A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW/MIX/ICE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE PRESSURE-DRIVEN CHANNELING
EFFECTS/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO LOCK IN COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIR. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
AND COULD TREND QUITE SIMILAR TO THIS MOST RECENT EVENT. HOWEVER,
GIVEN ITS CENTRAL PLAINS ORIGINS THE PWAT ANOMALIES AND RESULTANT
QPF SHOULDN'T BE AS HIGH - THOUGH TO PLAY DEVILS ADVOCATE THERE
ARE EXISTING ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SEVERAL RIVERS WHICH COULD SERVE
AS FOCI FOR SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES SHOULD HIGHER FLOWS DEVELOP.

BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH VARIABLE/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD LATE WINTER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION HAVE MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND WILL SLOWLY BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ALL
SITES MVFR AFTER 18Z. LATE IN THE DAY TOWARDS 21Z FROM KPBG
EASTWARD WILL SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BACK TO VFR AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AT KMSS UP
TOWARDS 35KTS, WITH 25KTS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN
AREA-WIDE AFTER 01Z AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH IFR VSBY IN
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT KMSS/KSLK AND POSSIBLE AT KPBG/KBTV.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 18Z MON...MVFR WITH PERIODS IFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LLWS LIKELY AT KBTV/KMSS 00Z-18Z MON.

00Z TUE - 00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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